Chinese people began to pay attention to the US presidential election in the late 1970s when the country first adopted its reform and opening-up policy. In 1980, for the first time the Chinese people realized that the presidential race between incumbent Democrat Jimmy Carter and his Republican opponent Ronald Reagan on the other side of the Pacific was so closely related to affairs of their own country. The result of the election had an important impact on China in its future development.
Since then, the Chinese people have been keeping a close watch on who occupies the White House although they do not have a role in the political games.
In this year's presidential contest, the US foreign policy toward China was not a contentious issue between candidates Barack Obama and John McCain although it had remained an outstanding one. However, the two presidential competitors had much in common on this issue, both saying they attached great importance to the role China played on major international and regional issues and they intended to pursue cooperation with China.
It is also their common ground that a stable Sino-US relationship is in the fundamental interest of the United States, although they disagreed on some specific topics due to their different backgrounds and political preferences. But both of them spoke highly of the current US policy on China adopted by the outgoing Bush administration and have not cast doubts on the framework of this China strategy. There are good reasons to believe Obama will carry forward the positive aspects of the US policy toward China.
Coming from the Democratic camp, the 47-year-old Obama surely has his own political preferences. Concerning Sino-US relations, his previous stances on economic and trade issues will have an important influence.
Over the past year, the side effects of globalization and President Bush's economic polices have exerted negative impacts upon the lives of the American middle and lower classes, a main factor underlying their resentment toward the current political situation. For ordinary American voters, the political slogans of the vigorous Afro-American contestant have met to a large degree their political demands, which, in return, have prompted Obama to further show a strong economic populism and trade protectionism.
For those interest groups whose profits have been affected by the inflow of made-in-China goods, the Asian nation on the other side of the Pacific Ocean will naturally become an target of attack. Their political requirements have thus contributed to Washington's tough attitude on the exchange rate of China's renminbi and its trade surplus with the US.
In the current context of the US economic slump, trade protectionists have become popular among many Americans. In his run-up to the presidential election, Obama centered his argument on China around bilateral trade. He criticized China, citing its currency policy as the main reason for its galloping trade surplus with the US, in the final stage of the presidential race.
Obama's victory should be attributed to a large degree to the support of the middle and lower-class American voters. Given the Democrat's consistent position of safeguarding the interests of these groups of people, it is very likely that Obama will exert more pressure upon China on economic and trade issues. Also, considering that the Democrats still control the majority of US congressional seats, China trade bills, which have always been pushed by Democratic Congressional members, will possibly pass through the Congress.
However, the US still needs cooperation from China in its struggle against the ongoing financial tsunami, which will create certain conditions for expanded Sino-US cooperation. In the long term, as the world's two major economic entities, cooperation between China and the US in the economic realm serves the interests of both countries. Obama's US administration will fully realize where the US interests lie. It is expected that the steadily developing China-US economic ties will not reverse the trend despite possible frictions.
An important feature of the China-US relations in recent years has been that new issues have been continuously included to bring changes to bilateral ties. As a new generation political leader, Obama remains highly sensitive to the many urgent challenges the world is confronted with. Therefore, the Obama administration is expected to actively promote China-US coordination in climate change, environmental protection and energy.
Due to differences in stances and interests, it is difficult for China and the US to reach consensus on their shares of obligations and responsibilities in these areas. Although the two countries have begun cooperation in these new areas, it is still a new challenge for them to finalize a plan that is acceptable to both sides.
As the range of political agendas expands, China and the US will meet through bilateral as well as multilateral platforms, instead of bilateral exchanges only. Obama's foreign policy will be characterized by multilateralism, as he is known for his preference to meet diplomatic goals through multilateral mechanisms, and has expressed his interest in forging new multilateral cooperation and dialogues.
We can foresee that, aside from world organizations including the United Nations, China and the US will remarkably increase exchanges on global issues and regional security through various international multilateral mechanisms.
There have been no particular worries among the Chinese people toward this year's American presidential elections. This reflects that the Chinese people are viewing the world in a more mature manner, and the China-US relations are growing more mature, too. It should be read as a positive sign for the stable development of bilateral relations that the Chinese are no longer so enthusiastic about the American presidential elections.
The author, Wang Wenfeng, ?is a researcher with China Institute of Contemporary International Relations
(China Daily November 6, 2008)
