Zimbabwe's rival leaders, under growing domestic, regional and international pressure, Monday began a crucial meeting to hammer out finer details of a power-sharing deal seen as the only cure of the country's long running economic and political crisis.
The leaders, drawn from the government and the opposition, signed a preliminary agreement last month to share power in a government of national unity, but have since then sharply bickered over which ministries each side will control.
The bickering, mainly centered on control of the powerful ministries of defence, home affairs, finance, information, local government and justice, now threatens the Sept. 15 power-sharing agreement which the government and the opposition signed, after being painstakingly brokered by former South African President Thabo Mbeki over several months on behalf of the African Union (AU) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC).
Main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai accuses President Robert Mugabe of attempting to take all the key ministries, leaving his partners in the proposed coalition government with inconsequential cabinet portfolios.
He has vowed never to accept skewed sharing of power, threatening instead to pull out of the proposed government of national unity in which Tsvangirai has been designated prime minister.
The stand off prompted Monday's crucial meeting seen as a make or break for both the parties involved, and the regional groups mediating. It comes hard on the heels of a failed SADC summit on Zimbabwe last week in Swaziland.
The leaders of Angola, Mozambique and Swaziland, who make up SADC's troika states in charge of politics, defence and security in the sub-region, are mediating in the dispute, the latest in a series between Zimbabwe's government and the opposition in recent years.
But analysts say the two sides may now be amenable to a compromise, softened by public demand for a settlement from their domestic political constituencies, and the region as a whole.
As Zimbabwe slides deeper into economic crisis, itself a product of political deadlock, more and more demands for a settlement between the government and the opposition are being made by their constituencies, analysts said.
"The rank and file of both parties (government and the opposition) are tired of the intrigues that they have seen, and all they are interested in now is a settlement that will bring national and personal stability," Bornwell Chakaodza, a political analyst, said.
He said the pressure is more on the government which currently controls the levers of power, and is therefore expected to deliver by the whole nation, not just its political constituencies.
"I think Mugabe is under more pressure because, by virtual of his position, he gets much of the blame for the economic and political ills prevailing in Zimbabwe right now. On the other hand, Tsvangirai has time and local and foreign support on his side, but he is also under growing pressure," he said.
It is this pressure, Chakaodza and other analysts said, that was likely to drive the two sides into compromising to conclude the power-sharing deal. The analysts said both the government and the opposition were cognizant of losing more and more electoral support, as voters become disillusioned with their long running political feud, in future polls.
"Look at how (former finance minister Simba) Makoni managed to win a considerable number of voters from both (the ruling party) ZANU-PF and the MDC in the last presidential election in March. Both parties are aware they could be dislodged by a third force if they don't make hay right now when the sun is shining," said a University of Zimbabwe political science lecturer who declined to be named.
He said there was growing disenchantment with the political two parties among voters because of their failure to conclude the negotiations and start working together to turn around the economy, once one of Africa's shining examples for good management and product and service delivery.
The elections maybe far off, but going into a new vote poles apart and with nothing to offer, would be political suicide for both ZANU-PF and the MDC, especially if someone like Makoni joined the fray, analysts said.
The AU and SADC, until now largely bystanders in Zimbabwe's long running political drama, are also piling heavy pressure on the two sides to conclude the power-sharing deal, they added.
"The two organizations have staked their prestige and reputation on Zimbabwe, and are therefore keen to see the deal succeed to safeguard their political standings," the University of Zimbabwe lecturer said.
"They (AU and SADC) have told the rest of the world to back off, and promised to handle the Zimbabwe question within the continent. It has to succeed, otherwise their respectability will be in tatters," he added.
Indeed, the AU and SADC have patiently stomached some of the crudest disputes and hold-ups between the government and the opposition, including the current disagreement over ministerial allocations in the coalition administration.
"Zimbabwe is their baby which they want to weep into line alone. The world and Zimbabweans are saying, fine but please don't take forever," said the University of Zimbabwe lecturer.
(Xinhua News Agency October 28, 2008)
