By Saud Abu Ramadan

Due to regional political changes, the Middle East peace process has bogged down again, with Israel and the Palestinians having achieved any progress over reaching a peace treaty that would resolve all the outstanding permanent status issues.

Analysts and politicians as well as leaders doubt whether the two sides would be able to reach a final agreement in the upcoming two months, and bridge the gaps in their peace negotiations on the permanent status issues, mainly Jerusalem and the Palestinian refugees.

They believed that the current internal political situation in Israel, preparations for US presidential elections and the internal Palestinian situation, in addition to the rifts the negotiators are still facing "altogether make it impossible to reach an agreement."

"I think it is so difficult to reach a peace agreement by the end of this year, but may be the United States would urge the two sides to sign a document of principle on what they had already agreed upon and leaving other issues to be negotiated in the future," said Ahmed el-Agha, a Palestinian political analyst.

He said the current US administration of George W. Bush wants to leave the White House making a historic event, "such as inviting Israeli and Palestinian leaders to the White House before the end of the year and make a declaration of principle that can be negotiated in the future."

Palestinian daily of al-Quds on Thursday quoted US political sources as saying that the Bush administration has prepared a document to bridge the gaps between Israel and the Palestinians, which still exist in many outstanding issues, mainly Jerusalem and the Palestinian refugees' right to return.

Top Palestinian negotiator Ahmed Qurei also cast doubt over whether the two sides will be able to bridge all the remaining gaps within the upcoming two months and reach an agreement on all the six permanent status issues "which are Jerusalem, refugees, settlements, security arrangements, borders and water."

On Tuesday, Qurei met Israeli Foreign Minister and new Kadima leader Tzipi Livni for the first time since she was tasked of forming a government on Monday night.

Well-informed Palestinian sources told Xinhua that the meeting between Qurei and Livni was not encouraging "because Livni asked Qurei to postpone the talks for 45 days until she finishes forming her new national unity government."

After the meeting, Qurei who was apparently disappointed of the meeting said that "if a peace agreement is not reached between Israel and the Palestinians by the end of the year, a new wave of violence is expected to erupt in the West Bank against Israel."

But Livni said Israel would be very firm and strict in responding to any Palestinian violence against Israel in the West Bank. So far, Livni has not finished her negotiations with Israeli parties to form the new government.

Meanwhile, Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat has told reporters that the Palestinians want an agreement that includes all the permanent status issues, saying "we either reach an agreement on everything or don't reach an agreement on anything."

President Mahmoud Abbas is to meet President Bush in New York on Thursday to review the outcome of the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations which were resumed after the US-host Annapolis conference in November.

Abbas has stated several times that "whether a final peace agreement is reached with Israel or hasn't been reached, we will continue our peace negotiations with the new Israeli government and with the upcoming new US Administration until we reach a complete agreement."

But the internal Palestinian cleavages are still haunting, mainly the disputes between Fatah and Islamic Hamas movement on the presidential term of Abbas, which will end in January 2009 according to Hamas.

Egypt is trying to bridge the gaps between the two Palestinian sides and reach an agreement concerning this issue.

"But if the dialogue in Cairo hasn't achieved any progress, Hamas movement would insist that the law should be implemented and President Abbas won't be legal if the presidential elections are not held on time," said Hani Kassab, a Palestinian academic at Gaza al-Aqsa University.

Failure of the Cairo dialogue would "lead to more complication to the situation in Gaza which is ruled by Hamas and the West Bank which is ruled by Abbas," according to Kassab.

This would rule out of any possibility of sealing a peace agreement "that leads to the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza," he added.

(Xinhua News Agency September 26, 2008)