After winning Wednesday's ruling Kadima primary, Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is likely to form a coalition which will make her Israel's second woman prime minister, analysts said Thursday, though pointing out that there are stumbling blocks for her to clear before she manages to do so.  

To be empowered to establish new government 

According to Judge Dan Arbel, Kadima primary committee head, Livni clinched the primary by a mere margin of 431 votes. Over half of the some 74,000 registered Kadima members voted in the party's first-ever primary on Wednesday.

Final results released by Kadima early Thursday showed that with all votes counted, Livni secured 16,936 votes, or 43.1 percent, as compared to 16,505 votes, or 42 percent, that went to her main rival, Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz.

As the top contender received over 40 percent, no second round needs to be held. Thus, with the narrow margin, Livni becomes the third and the first woman leader of the three-year-old centrist party founded by former prime minister Ariel Sharon.

After the new Kadima chair is chosen, in the next few days, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, the second leader of the party following Sharon, is expected to honor his pledge and tender his resignation to President Shimon Peres and become caretaker prime minister. The cabinet will resign with him and become caretaker cabinet.

Following consultations with parliamentary factions, Peres will empower a lawmaker, most probably Livni, to establish a new government. Livni has 28 days, with a possible extension of 14 days, to form a new cabinet, which must be endorsed by the Knesset (parliament).

Should the cabinet-making efforts succeed, Livni, who was considered by many Israelis to be the only candidate who can put together a coalition government and spare the Israeli public from early general elections, would become Israel's second woman premier after Golda Meir.

Likely to form coalition despite difficulties

Early Thursday morning, Livni vowed to create government stability with other ministers in her victory speech after being declared winner of Kadima primary, saying that she intends to meet with other factions in order to form a coalition.

In reference to her primary opponents, with whom she scheduled to hold talks on Thursday, the foreign minister said "they were rivals of the moment, but together we have one mission. Together we will create government stability."

She also scheduled meetings with members of other political parties on coalition-formation talks for Friday.

It is very likely for Livni to succeed in forming a coalition, some analysts say, though they conceded that there are difficulties awaiting her.

According to Gil Hoffman, chief political correspondent and analyst for local daily The Jerusalem Post, it is unlikely for the Labor party, a main coalition partner of Kadima, to pull out of a coalition, adding that Labor chairman Ehud Barak, also defense minister, has interest in staying in the government as long as possible.

Earlier Thursday, Livni phoned Barak to discuss possible cooperation between the two parties in the future. It is estimated that in light of Labor's poor standings among voters, the party is likely to stay in the government to avoid early general elections.

One of the major issue affecting the putting together of a new coalition is the stance of the ultra-Orthodox Shas Party, another main coalition partner of Kadima, according to Gil Hoffman.