By Yu Sui
Russia has made great strides on its path to economic
rejuvenation this year and shows more confidence on the diplomatic
front.
Russia's State Duma election ended earlier this month with 63.78
percent of 108 million registered voters casting their ballots for
candidates representing 11 political parties.
As widely expected, United Russia, the party President Vladimir
Putin backs, emerged victorious by bagging 64.3 percent of the
votes, which gave it a 315-seat majority in the 450-seat lower
house of parliament.
The Communist Party, Liberal Democratic Party and Fair Russia
trailed far behind with 11.57 percent, 8.14 percent and 7.74
percent of the votes respectively, which translate into 57, 40 and
38 seats. The other seven parties all failed to gain a seat because
none of them won more than 2.5 percent of the ballots.
The State Duma election was in a sense a public endorsement of
Putin's achievements in his eight years as Russian president, as he
said: "United Russia's triumph is a stamp of approval for me by the
people."
In order to remain in power, albeit in a different role, after
his term of office ends next year, Putin has called for the
presidential election to be held in March next year, almost on the
heels of the parliamentary election.
At a mass rally held in Moscow on November 21, Putin hit out at
both ends of the political spectrum in a lengthy speech, slamming
the rightwing alliance for "passing unbalanced and irresponsible
budgets year after year that caused the economy to collapse and
people's living standards to plummet" when they were in power in
the 1990s.
He also criticized the Communist Party, saying its policies
"left people with few basic services and consumer goods in the
1980s" after decades as the ruling party and "led to the
disintegration of the Soviet Union".
He called on voters to support the United Russia party, saying
that would allow the country to "maintain the current development
principles and pace of economic growth and lead Russia into the top
five major economic powers (in the world) within the next 10
years".
His speech was very effective, as United Russia garnered over 10
percent more votes than public opinion polls showed before election
day.
There is no doubt United Russia owed its sweeping victory to the
achievements of Putin's administration and people's trust in the
president.
And there are three reasons that analysts believe Russia is
headed in the right direction.
First, "managed democracy" and "sovereign democracy" has kept
the political situation stable.
Second, strong showing by the energy sector has pumped up
overall economic growth.
Third, refusal to give in under outside pressure has reinforced
Russia's esteem as a major power.
"Managed democracy" is a reply to the bitter fruits that
uncontrolled democracy brought Russia; while "sovereign democracy"
is one free of foreign interference.
The outcome of the State Duma election secured Putin's power
structure - the completion of a new political system. Hundreds of
political parties emerged after Russia declared independence. They
were considered one of the main causes for the country's messy
political scene.
Putin had the Political Party Law passed after assuming the
presidency specifically to address the problem, intent on gradually
nurturing a mature political system with only three or four major
political parties.
The concept has now become a reality, as United Russia and its
ally the Fair Russia, and the Liberal Democratic Party, which does
not oppose United Russia, occupy 393 of the 450 seats (80.18
percent) in the State Duma.
The only real opposition now is the Communist Party, which has
seen its membership from about 500,000 shrinking to about 180,000
today.
Putin has significantly "weakened" the CP's strength, but he has
also incorporated many ideas from the CP's guiding principles into
his own policies.
The more successful Putin is the harder it is for the CP to be
the main opposition. However, there is also a downside to this, the
two sides' overlapping relationship, and separate efforts to
infiltrate each other.
Putin's top concern is to "ensure the continuity of national
policies". These "national policies" comprise three aspects.
The first is a "managed democracy" aimed at keeping the
political situation stable and the society harmonious, a socialist
market economy characterized by emphasis on efficiency and equal
attention to fairness, and diplomacy based on the fundamental
principle of balance.
The second is "administrative strategy", which is centered on
national interests to make the nation powerful and the people rich,
economic development with national spirit as the motivation, unity
of the whole society with past mistakes as a reminder, and
regaining its major power status.
The third is a set of values, which consists of three factors
that exist in Russian society today - liberalism, socialism and
nationalism. The idea is to combine the three and apply them in
economic, political and foreign policies. All these strategic moves
characterize Putin's path.
He has always been on high alert against "color revolutions"
because they worry him to no end.
In his speech on November 21, Putin openly slammed those who
instigated "color revolutions" in Russia, saying "some people in
our country are so intimate with certain foreign embassies they
have probably worn out their door mats trying to enlist support
from foreign foundations and governments instead of their own
compatriots".
During the State Duma election, Putin was quoted by the press as
saying "Russia has followed a path without serious damage",
apparently referring to Ukraine and Georgia, where elections have
left the society split and the political system in tatters, in
stark contrast to Russia's stable, color revolution-free
election.
As for Putin's successor, there is no more suspense.. United
Russia chairman Boris Gryzlov once said at a press conference that
his party would support any plan President Putin proposed.
On December 10, United Russia, Fair Russia, the Agrarian Party
of Russia and Citizens' Force jointly nominated First Deputy Prime
Minister Dmitry Medvedev as Putin's successor.
And Putin told the leaders of the four parties he fully
supported their choice.
It would seem picking 42-year-old Medvedev as Putin's successor
fits perfectly with his agenda - "ensuring the country's political
situation remains stable, and the economy continues to
develop."
On Tuesday, Medvedev announced that he wanted Putin to become
prime minister under him.
That said, Putin will continue to play a central role in
national politics after his term ends next year.
According to United Russia, Putin is now "the nation's leader".
This paramount title means the "Putin era" will not end even though
he will not be president any more.
Russia has experienced "destruction, turmoil, restoration and
rejuvenation" since the Soviet Union fell apart.
The eight or nine years under Boris Yeltsin's leadership was a
period of "destruction" to "turmoil"; while the eight years under
Putin has witnessed "turmoil" to "restoration", which is far from
over.
People have both understanding and fear as expressed by the
international press regarding the likelihood of Putin staying in
power in a different role. This in a way underlines Putin's
charisma and clout. Truth is, understanding makes common sense and
fear is really unnecessary.
The author is a researcher with the Research Center of
Contemporary World
(China Daily December 14, 2007)
