The United States will experience a near recession of its
economy in the final quarter of the year and the beginning of 2008,
according to a study on the country's economy released on
Wednesday.
The country's economic growth is expected to hover slightly
above 1 percent, said the study by economists at the University of
California in Los Angeles.
In the meantime, however, the unemployment rate will likely
reach 5.2 percent by mid-2008, up from the current level of 4.6
percent, according to the forecast.
"Such an economic performance is almost as close as you can get
to avoid the technical definition of a recession, which is a
two-consecutive-quarter decline in real GDP," economist David
Shulman wrote in the latest UCLA Anderson Forecast.
Economists predicted that economic growth for the nation would
remain tepid for much of 2008 but bounce back to normal levels in
2009.
While the economists called their forecast a "near-recession
experience," they warned that the situation could worsen.
"Of course, when the economy slows to a one percent pace, it
runs the risk of falling into an actual recession just as when as
airplane's velocity dips down to its stall speed and falls out of
the sky," Shulman wrote.
Despite that warning, economists said they remain optimistic
that the nation will weather the storm and avoid a full-blown
recession, noting that a strong global economy will lead to an
increase in exports.
(Xinhua News Agency September 13, 2007)
