By Yu Sui
Recently Georgia's relations with Russia have been marred by the
"airspace intrusion" incident. The real cause of the incident is
still to be resolved, as the two sides continue to blame each other
while sticking to their own accounts of what happened.
What we know so far is that on August 6, the Georgian government
accused a Russian fighter jet of illegally entering its airspace
and fired a rocket. The Russian side has categorically rejected
this accusation and countered by accusing Georgia of planting
evidence.
Moscow believes the whole thing is a farce staged by Georgia to
undermine the planned talks between South Ossetia and Georgia over
the status of the South Ossetia region.
On August 16, the United States submitted a draft statement to
the UN Security Council outlining an assessment of the incident,
but failed to get the council to vote on it because of Russia's
objections.
The trouble does not end there. A spokesperson for the Georgian
Interior Ministry announced on August 24 that its ground forces
opened fire on a Russian aircraft flying over the mountainous
region of Abkhazia (Abkhazeti). An aide to the Russian Air Force
commander immediately responded by calling the Georgian statement
"another public provocation directed at Russia".
Both Russia and Georgia know exactly what the other side is up
to amid the bickering. Since the Soviet Union disintegrated, the
complex relationship between Russia and Georgia has experienced
some intense flair-ups. The cause of their troubled relations can
be viewed from two perspectives.
There are at least four sticking points as far as their
bilateral ties are concerned.
The first is the South Ossetia issue. South Ossetia is an
autonomous region of Georgia bordering Russia's North Ossetia.
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the region demanded
separation from Georgia to merge with North Ossetia in order to
become part of Russia.
The South Ossetia government has been in a standoff with the
central government since it declared independence and large-scale
armed conflicts broke out between the two sides. Because the South
Ossetia government maintains close relations with Russia, Georgia
often alleges that Russia secretly provides South Ossetia with
military supplies and financial support, which seriously harms
bilateral ties.
Currently the two countries are preparing for talks aimed at
determining the status of South Ossetia. US diplomats stationed in
Georgia have said: "What worries America is not the missile
incident but the whole situation in South Ossetia."
The second is the Abkhazia issue. Abkhazia is an autonomous
republic within Georgia. The Abkhaz ethnic minority believes the
Georgians have long been changing the demographic makeup in
Abkhazia, where the Abkhaz population has fallen to just 25 percent
of the total and their legitimate rights as an ethnic minority is
routinely disregarded.
In 1992, Abkhazia declared independence and in August that year,
armed conflict broke out with Georgia which lasted for 14
months.
Abkhazia is nominally and legally still part of Georgia, but
Georgia in fact does not have sovereign rule over the region, which
lies between the Psou and Inguri rivers.
The Georgian government only managed to gain control over a
small area in the Kodori Valley in July last year. The Georgian
government believes the Abkhazia issue has persisted so far because
Russia has been secretly supporting the region's ethnic
secessionists.
The third is Russian military bases in Georgia. Russia retained
four military bases in Georgia after the demise of the Soviet
Union. According to a joint statement the two sides made in
Istanbul in 1999, Russia has abandoned two of them, while keeping
the other two in Akhalkalaki and Batumi. The two sides have yet to
agree on leasing terms for the two bases.
On March 10 this year the Georgian Parliament passed a
resolution declaring the Russian military bases illegal and that
Russia must come up with a timetable for pulling its troops out by
May 15, or Georgia would act unilaterally to demolish the
bases.
Russia on the other hand insisted it needed three to four years
to complete the process. Western media has pointed out the United
States is also involved in the military base wrangling and this is
but one of many such struggles between the two big powers in
Central Asia.
The fourth is Georgia's accommodation of Chechen rebels. The
Pankisi Gorge in Georgia is located near Chechnya in Russia. Russia
has accused Georgia of providing cover for Chechen rebels hiding in
the Pankisi Gorge and said financial support, military logistical
supplies and foreign mercenaries have all been entering Chechnya
from that area.
The Russian side has repeatedly asked its Georgian counterpart
to take joint military action, but Georgian leaders have denied
large numbers of rebel forces were present in the area and has
rejected Russia's request, saying Georgia was capable of "putting
the Pankisi Gorge in order" on its own.
Georgia has announced it had caught a few Chechen terrorists but
refused Moscow's demand for their deportation to Russia.
There are also at least four sticking points in the
Russia-Georgia multilateral relations.
The first lies with Georgia's attempt to join NATO, which Russia
is absolutely against. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander
Grushko said on October 25, last year that President Vladimir Putin
had told NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, Russia was
very concerned about NATO's eastward expansion and the
strengthening ties between the Western alliance and Georgia.
NATO's eastward expansion and its plan to accept Georgia as a
member has worried Russia and will affect its political, military
and economic interests as well as casting a negative impact on the
fragile situation in the already troubled Caucasus.
NATO's decision to increase dialogue with Georgia has been
interpreted by the latter as an offer of support for it to take a
confrontational stance against Russia.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an official
letter to France and Germany that Georgia's allegation that a
Russian fighter jet dropped a missile inside Georgia was "a ploy"
to please NATO.
The second is Georgia's obsession with forming a GUAM (Georgia,
Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova) alliance. Georgia assumed a
detached posture when the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)
was taking shape and only joined it reluctantly when internal and
external hardship left it no other choice.
Georgia needs Russia's help to contain ethnic secessionist
movements and secure territorial integrity; it also wants to use
international political organizations and media to offset Russia's
influence in order to protect its sovereign independence.
With US support, Georgia teamed up with Ukraine, Azerbaijan and
Moldova to form GUAM, which has seriously undercut the status of
CIS. In May last year according to a resolution reached during a
GUAM meeting, the new group was upgraded to "a democratic and
economic development organization" and further distanced itself
from CIS.
The third is Georgia's enthusiasm for the "color revolution"
orchestrated by the US. Compared to those of other former Soviet
republics, Georgian leaders were the first to embrace the
US-designed "color revolution". US President George W. Bush visited
Georgia to show his support in person.
Although small and poor, Georgia boasts a very important
geo-strategic position, which the US believes, comes in handy in
keeping Russia busy and influencing some of the former Soviet
republics.
Today a large number of US instructors are training Georgian
armed forces. The Georgian government announced a few years ago
that the US would send 150 military experts to Georgia and allocate
US$65 million for the purpose. That sum was nearly three times more
than Georgia's annual defense budget at that time.
The fourth is the struggle between Russia and Georgia to control
the oil and natural gas flow. Georgia is a hub of oil and natural
gas pipes from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean. For decades
Russia has capitalized on the oil and gas export pipelines
stretching mainly within its borders from the Central Asian
production region to Europe. It has a vital grip on energy supplies
from the Caspian Sea, which is a lifeline for Western nations, so
as to ward off US and Western attempts to encroach upon its
traditional sphere of power.
Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia have championed a counter measure
against Russia by jointly building a pipeline linking oil-rich Baku
(in Azerbaijan) with Tbilisi (Georgian capital) and Ceyhan (in
Turkey).
The US has shown tremendous interest in this plan and believes
this oil pipeline, which circumvents Russia and is free from OPEC
intervention, will serve as a key leverage in the world energy
market. When completed, the pipeline will break Russia's monopoly
over oil transportation in that part of the world.
Deepening grudges between Russia and Georgia serve neither
side's interests. The two countries know this all too well but need
time to figure out a way to talk about it. And to do so they must
keep the US out of the picture.
The author is a senior researcher with the Beijing-based
Research Center of Contemporary World.
(China Daily September 4, 2007)
