Power-sharing talks between Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf
and former prime minister Benazir Bhutto have stalled but political
compulsions are likely to push both back to the table, analysts
said.
Musharraf and self-exiled two-time prime minister Bhutto have
been sounding each other out for years but with Musharraf's terms
as both president and army chief due to end soon, they have
intensified efforts to reach an agreement.
But Bhutto said in London on Saturday the talks had stalled and
she planned to return to Pakistan soon even without a deal. She
will announce details of her return on September 14.
Any agreement would likely see Musharraf stepping down as army
chief before he stands for another term between mid-September and
mid-October, while clearing the way for Bhutto, who still faces
graft charges, to return to politics and take part in general
elections due at the end of the year.
The two are natural allies, both opposed to Islamist militancy
and in favor of free-market reforms.
The West would like to see cooperation between moderates in the
nuclear-armed country on the front line of the fight against
Al-Qaida and vital to tackling the Taliban in Afghanistan.
But with Musharraf's popularity plummeting, legal challenges to
his rule mounting and former exiled prime ministers Bhutto and
Nawaz Sharif preparing to return home, Pakistan is facing the risk
of turmoil.
While some analysts said the mistrust between Musharraf and
Bhutto was too deep for them ever to reach a broad pact, others
said they needed each other.
"Both will try to the last, I do not think it's over," political
commentator Nasim Zehra said yesterday.
"It's a political compulsion for both of them given their
objectives - for one to stay in power and for the other to come
back very actively in the political sphere."
Bhutto's decision to only announce her return plans on September
14 had given that much more time for talks. Information Minister
Mohammad Ali Durrani said yesterday negotiations would
continue.
"The success of the talks depends on their wish-list," he said,
referring to Bhutto's demands.
Musharraf needs the support of a popular leader such as Bhutto
to bolster his standing before he seeks re-election, especially
with their old rival, exiled former prime minister Sharif vowing to
return on September 10 and challenge Musharraf.
Constitutionally, Musharraf is bound to stand down as the chief
of the army, his main power-base, by the end of the year.
He will then need Bhutto's support for a constitutional
amendment waiving a clause that bars state servants from running
for office for two years from the time of their resignations.
Bhutto has insisted Musharraf step down as army chief. She also
wants immunity from prosecution for herself and others who served
in the late 1980s and 1990s. She is also demanding the lifting of a
ban on a prime minister serving a third term, and that the
president be stripped of the power to dismiss governments.
But many members of Musharraf's ruling Pakistan Muslim League
(PML) are alarmed at the prospect of their old rival returning to
take power from them.
The party is rejecting Bhutto's demands that prime ministers be
allowed a third term and that presidents give up the power to
dismiss governments.
If Musharraf gives too much away to Bhutto, he risks splitting
the PML, his main base of support.
(China Daily via agencies September 3, 2007)
