Record high oil prices, while having little effect on the
world's industrialized nations and benefiting oil-producing
emerging economies, are taking a toll on poor countries that rely
on imports, analysts say.
World oil prices this week hit a record high when New York crude
prices reached US$78.77 per barrel on news of sliding American
crude reserves.
"You cannot say that this has had any effect on the world
economy," said Philippe Chalmin, an economics professor at Paris
Dauphine university.
"Rich countries have been remarkably good at adapting to
significantly higher oil prices" over the past four years, said
Francis Perrin, director of the "Le petrole et le gaz arabes"
publication.
That situation is likely to continue. Demand for oil has soared
in recent years due to the needs of emerging economies, in
particular China, and because of the growing world economy.
It is rising today much faster than production capacity, which
is likely to keep up the pressure on prices and prevent a return to
price levels of five years ago, when a barrel was worth around
US$25.
But despite soaring prices today, the International Monetary
Fund has just raised its forecast for world growth to 5.2 percent
for 2007 and 2008 and says that while it recognizes that high oil
prices present a risk, it is not alarmed.
Industrialized countries are today much less dependant on oil
than they were 30 years ago, said Manouchehr Takin from the Centre
for Global Energy Studies.
They diversified their energy sources after the oil crises of
the 1970s and 1980s, with some turning to nuclear power, and they
also improved their energy efficiency.
Takin however said that if oil prices climb beyond 80 dollars
the trend could have a psychological effect and curb growth and
accelerate inflation.
Oil-producing economies such as Algeria, Venezuela or Libya have
profited handsomely from high prices,
But many analysts say that the price rises are a calamity for
developing countries that rely on imports for their energy
needs.
Their oil bills have ballooned, worsening their deficits and
hampering their fight against poverty.
Claude Mandil, the head of the International Energy Agency
watchdog, warned recently of a "catastrophe" for the world's
poorest countries that had forced the state to provide subsidies
for oil.
He said the cost of these subsidies was five times higher than
the savings made when rich lender nations wrote off poor countries'
debts.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said
in its latest report on African economic perspectives that because
of high oil prices, inflation had climbed beyond 10 percent in many
of the continent's countries that relied on oil imports.
(China Daily via agencies August 6, 2007)
