By Ding Yuanhong
The European security situation has been relatively quiet since
the conclusion of the Kosovo war, though several serious challenges
loom. The US is determined to deploy an anti-missile system in the
region of Central Europe and to push Kosovo towards independence.
These two undercurrents are threatening the continent's peace and
tranquility.
At the beginning of this year, the US revealed that it was going
to deploy an anti-missile system in Poland and the Czech Republic,
a move that Russia strongly opposes. The US claims that the system
is intended to deter the threat of a missile attack by Iran or
North Korea.
This argument is hardly convincing. As soon as the plan was
announced, Russian officials said they believed the system was
aimed at their country, and others agreed.
In his February 2 speech in Germany at the Munich Conference on
Security Policy, President Vladimir Putin lashed out at the US's
foreign policy, using exceptionally harsh words. He said that the
United States' deployment of an anti-missile system in Europe made
Russia feel "uneasy" and "would inevitably lead to a new round of
arms race". Other Russian officials at different levels have
subsequently come out to denounce the move, using sharper and
sharper language.
After a meeting with Czech President Vaclav Klaus on April 27,
Putin fiercely criticized the US for its plan to deploy an
anti-missile system in Poland and the Czech Republic at a news
briefing. He said the plan was totally directed at Russia. By way
of an example, the Russian president referred to the US's decision
to deploy Pershing II mid-range missiles in the then Federal
Republic of Germany in the 1980s, leading to a crisis. The
implication was that the US's new system would lead to a fresh arms
race.
"This will thoroughly change the security system in Europe and
make the possibility of mutual damage and even joint destruction
increase many times," he said.
On May 3, Russia formally announced that it would freeze the
Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), suspending its
obligations to implement the treaty until other countries ratified
it.
Despite the seemingly jovial meeting between George W Bush and
Putin at the Bush family home in Kennebunkport, Maine, President
Putin signed a decree freezing Russia's participation in the CFE,
citing "extraordinary circumstances ... which affect the security
of the Russian Federation and require immediate measures," the
Kremlin said in a statement.
The CFE treaty and the treaty on eliminating medium-range and
intermediate-range missiles in Europe were signed by the US and the
Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in 1987. They have been crucial
to the maintenance of the strategic balance in Europe after the
Cold War.
The US and other Western countries were all stunned by Russia's
strong reaction. But this has all been futile.
In a sense, Russia's strong opposition to the US plan to deploy
an anti-missile system in Poland and the Czech Republic is a kind
of counterattack driven by years of accumulated rancor.
After the conclusion of the Cold War, the US has squeezed
Russia's strategic space by expanding NATO eastward, plotting the
"Color Revolution" and inciting countries in the Commonwealth of
Independent States, such as Georgia and Ukraine, to ceaselessly
provoke Russia. Russia's reaction also reflects President Putin's
intention to create a policy basis for whoever becomes his
successor.
The effectiveness of the US anti-missile system is still in
doubt. The US's insistence on carrying out the plan at this time
seems to be purely political, an attempt to achieve multiple
political ends. First, the US is choosing to deploy an anti-missile
system in Poland and the Czech Republic, which neighbor Russia and
are hostile to Russia. It appears to be intended to contain
Russia's resurgence.
Second, the move seems intended to slow down or even stop the
pace of Europe's military integration, when the EU and NATO are
heatedly discussing the construction of their own European regional
anti-missile system.
For years, EU countries have been striving to set up an
independent defense force of their own, believing it is
indispensable for the EU to play an independent role in the
international arena.
Despite many difficulties, the EU has not given up its efforts.
At the recent ceremony to celebrate the EU's 50th Anniversary,
German Chancellor Angela Merkel clearly pointed out that the EU
should build its own army. The economic strength of the EU as a
whole can match that of the US. The euro has already stood its
ground. The EU's political influence keeps increasing along with
its continuous expansion.
The one area in which the US overwhelms the EU is in military
power. The EU's desire to construct an independent defense system
and promote military integration is disadvantageous to the US's
attempts to control Europe.
To maintain its military dominance, the US has pushed for the
deployment of an anti-missile system in some countries in Central
Europe in the name of a non-existent missile threat before Europe
could construct its own anti-missile system that covers the whole
continent.
Third, the US is using the old grudge that Poland and the Czech
Republic hold against Russia and their fear of being dominated by
the so-called old European countries like Germany and France. It is
treating the new EU members as tools to squeeze Russia.
The repercussions could be profound. This will not only damage
the already fragile international non-proliferation regime, but
also strike a blow on the European strategic balance, which has
been stable over the years. Though the claim that Europe will
return to a Cold War situation is an exaggeration, there is no
doubt that the European security situation appears set to enter
into an unstable new period.
Besides the US plan to deploy an anti-missile system in Poland
and the Czech Republic, another potential threat to the European
security situation is Kosovo's accelerating steps towards
independence, which it is taking under the influence of the US.
Ethnic conflicts and land disputes triggered by the restive
region have a long history, creating an extremely sensitive problem
in both the Balkan region and Central and Eastern Europe.
The Kosovo problem is the most acute among those at the moment.
It was precisely the conflict between the Serbians and the
Albanians in Kosovo that served as an excuse for US-led NATO forces
to launch the war against the former Yugoslavia.
After this war ended, in response to calls from other Western
countries, Kosovo, a part of the former Yugoslavian territory, was
taken from the Serbian Republic and handed over to the UN for
temporary trusteeship.
Elements of NATO's army remain there today. And former Finnish
President Martti Ahtisaari, the special representative of the UN
secretary-general, has been presiding over the negotiations between
the Serbians and the Albanians in Kosovo, hoping to work out a plan
to resolve the Kosovo problem.
In view of the endless disputes between the Serbians and the
Albanians, Ahtisaari submitted a so-called compromise plan to the
new UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, and presented his plan to the
Serbian government and the Kosovo local government
afterwards.
?
The core content of this plan is to set up a temporary Kosovo state
under international supervision and management. The move would
basically allow Kosovo to break away from the Serbian Republic and
head towards independence.
Before the UN Security Council discussed this topic in April,
the EU and the European Parliament had held intense meetings to
discuss and design specific measures and procedures for
"international supervision" by the EU.
It is not difficult for people to discern an American influence
behind all these moves. Starting with the strategy of dismembering
the former Yugoslavia, the US has clearly stood at the side of the
Albanians and supported their demand for independence before
launching the Kosovo war.
Now the former Yugoslavia has completely disintegrated.
Montenegro has also gained independence, and the Serbian Republic's
domestic political situation has been unstable all along.
Since Kosovo has been out of its actual control and occupied by
foreign armies all these years, Serbia's right to speak on the
problem of Kosovo has been greatly weakened.
This time around, Western countries have turned a deaf ear to
Serbia's opposition to the settlement plan that Ahtisaari wrote and
directly submitted to the UN Security Council for discussion and
approval.
But this plan actually sets a precedent: A sovereign state could
lose part of its territory because of ethnic differences and
interference from outside powers. This has been rarely seen since
World War II, and will surely lead to severe consequences.
The US and other Western countries have argued that this is only
a "special case". This is not convincing at all. After the plan was
brought up, the Serbian government immediately declared it to be
"unacceptable". Russia insisted that mediation should go on, so as
to work out a plan that could be accepted by both the Serbians and
the Albanians, and even proposed that the special representative of
the UN secretary-general be replaced. Other countries in the Balkan
region as well as countries such as Spain, which has its own ethnic
secessionist problems, grew uneasy.
In April, the Security Council discussed the issue of Kosovo,
but failed to make any progress on the problem because of
conflicting opinions.
However, Western countries, led by the US, insisted on putting
the plan into practice and tried very hard, using both stick and
carrot, to impel Russia not to use its veto power in the Security
Council.
One of the motives for the US's persistence in advocating Kosovo
independence was spelled out in an April 19 article in the Hong
Kong Asian Times Online. The piece said the US wanted to sacrifice
Serbia to gain favor with the Islamic world and to win support from
Sunni Muslim countries to counter Iran.
These two aggravating undercurrents - the anti-missile problem
on the one hand and the Kosovo problem on the other - are affecting
European security and stability. These problems reflect the complex
background of the tense relations between Russia, the US and other
Western countries.
The author is former ambassador of China to the EU and a
council member of the Chinese People's Institute of Foreign Affairs
(CPIFA). The article is excerpted from "European situation beset
with undercurrents", which was published in the summer issue of
CPIFA's Foreign Affairs Journal.
(China Daily July 19, 2007)
