By Pang Zhongying
United Nations Secretary- General Ban Ki-moon wrote an opinion
column titled "A Climate Culprit in Darfur" in the June 16 issue of
the Washington Post. In that article he linked the Darfur
issue in Africa with climate change and called for more attention
to be paid to environmental issues in that part of the world,
saying they had spurred the bloody conflicts in the Darfur
region.
In the past 20 years, Ban wrote, western Sudan and neighboring
countries have been suffering from decreasing rainfall and
spreading desertification, which have brought water and food
scarcity to the fore. As a result, violent conflicts between local
farmers and nomads have broken out and escalated. Before we knew
it, the situation in Darfur had developed into an enormous human
tragedy. Ban also noted that environmental issues were partly to
blame for internal conflicts in such impoverished countries as
Somalia, Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) and Burkina Faso.
There have been examples of human conflicts caused by climate
change in other parts of the world as well.
Since the late 1980s, environmental problems have negatively
affected world politics, and with growing severity. Finally, a
multilateral agreement on international climate control was born in
1997 in the shape of the Kyoto Protocol. In the ensuing decade,
individual nations and the world community at large have been
bickering about climate change and its consequences. More and more
non-government organizations (NGO) have joined the chorus of voices
hoping to raise awareness of the worsening problem and the
long-term challenge it poses.
Though there are still groups and individuals in the United
States and Europe that refuse to recognize the science of climate
change, the European Union (EU), the US and the United Nations (UN)
have nevertheless come to terms with this reality. To China, it
makes no sense to deny the fundamental facts.
The birth of the world's first atomic bomb can be seen as one of
the key factors influencing world politics since 1945. However, the
impact of global climate change on world politics could prove more
significant than the invention and possible proliferation of
nuclear arms. Global warming will continue, while the complicated
politics of climate change will become an issue affecting all
individual lives.
The causes of global climate change include:
The unprecedented expansion of the global economy. Most of the
"greenhouse gases" in the atmosphere today were discharged by
developed countries over the past few centuries. However, toward
the end of the last century, some populous nations, such as China
and India, finally joined the global economic system, which means
these countries will soon find themselves in the ranks of major
greenhouse gas-discharging nations. A fact we must remember is that
Western countries and industrialized Asian nations like Japan and
the Republic of Korea have moved many of their factories to
developing countries such as China and India, where cheap labor
allows them to manufacture at lower costs than at home. This
globalization of production has resulted in the discharge of much
more waste in poor nations that otherwise would have been released
in developed countries. As a matter of fact, not all of the
greenhouse gases released "in China" or "from China" are really
"China's".
Many developing countries, for various reasons, have pursued
economic growth in pure money terms and allowed "development-ism"
or "development-first" philosophy to dictate their decision making
processes, resulting in decades, if not centuries, of neglect or
ignorance of environmental problems and indifference to or an
inability to deal with them.
With a population of only one-fifth of China's, the United
States is the top consumer of natural resources and the leading
waste producer in the world. It has benefited the most from
economic globalization and developed a production style and
life-style based on indiscriminate and care-free consumption of the
world's resources. This "American" production style and lifestyle
have spread to the rest of the world, thanks to globalization, like
a contagious disease, especially in the non-Western world: Go to
any non-Western corner of the world and one will see copied, cloned
or even blown-up versions of the American style.
Global climate change has been accompanied by political
conflicts in the world. In the US, for instance, interest groups
such as oil and automobile conglomerates have done their best to
block the adoption of measures to deal with climate change for
years. Within the "Western bloc", the fact that the US and Europe
have been at loggerheads over this issue is no secret.
Similar disputes have also been raging between developed and
developing nations. For example, both the Democrats and Republicans
in the US Congress routinely paint China as the key to solving the
problem of global climate change rather than America itself. But
the truth is that China lags far behind the US in terms of per
capita greenhouse gas discharges, though it is second to the
world's largest economy in terms of the total volume of carbon
dioxide released every year.
From European Union nations (such as Britain and Germany) to the
US (especially the Democrats) and the G8 group, global climate
change has become a priority in developed countries' internal and
international politics, and fierce disputes have raged. In sharp
contrast, this issue has yet to become a priority in the domestic
and foreign policies of many developing countries, including China
and India, where the experience of climate change has been more
traumatic than in Western nations.
Ironically, challenges and tragedies such as Darfur are not all
that climate change has brought, meaning not all the news about
climate change is bad. To some countries (governments), communities
and international groups it also presents lots of opportunities,
which is good news. Because the impacts of climate change on
different countries, regions, communities and various interest
groups are different, the politics of climate change is more
complicated than many people think.
This writer has envisioned and predicted some short-term and
long-term impacts or consequences of global climate on world
politics:
First of all, as the world's largest and most developed economy,
responsible for the most greenhouse gas discharges on both an
absolute and per capita basis, the US remains at the center of this
issue. The progress of negotiations aimed at preventing climate
change from worsening will depend on the attitude, policies and
strategy of the US government and society.
Second, climate change will impact geopolitics and the wellbeing
of nations. Some will find themselves struggling for survival.
Deserts expand with no respect for national borders. Some countries
may see their national strength devoured by an endless sea of sand.
The continuing desertification of Mongolia, already home to one of
the biggest deserts in the world, is posing a grave threat to
Northern Asia and especially China. The expanding Sahara Desert in
Africa has already buried many a native kingdom. Darfur is but
another tragedy unfolding in its wake. While landlocked countries
endure the onslaught of deserts, many "maritime nations" are at the
mercy of rising sea levels and torrential rain.
The picture in China is just as gloomy, if not more so. With its
extremely vulnerable geological system and worsening environmental
ills (nearly 30 percent of the country's land area has become
desert while water pollution is threatening people's lives), the
goal of achieving a peaceful rise is certainly becoming more
difficult for the great nation to attain. It must be noted that
serious pollution has already complicated China's foreign
relations.
For some other countries, like Russia and Australia, climate
change may help beef up their national strength. As two major
territorial powers, these two countries could see much of their
land become suitable for development thanks to climate change.
Russia will become a new superpower with enormous resources at its
disposal.
To realize this ambition, Moscow is building on its resource
advantages, while the West frets over the prospect of Russia
influencing world politics with its natural resources arsenal.
Third, different countries will adopt different policies, laws
and educational approaches according to their own understanding of
climate change, strategies and control capabilities. Some
countries, developed European countries in particular, should be
able to weather the challenges presented by Mother Nature because
they have done their homework and are well prepared. They may even
benefit from climate change at the end of the day. But countries
that have continued to ignore all the warning signs will most
likely find themselves in dire political straits come judgment
day.
Fourth, climate change may give nations a reason to regroup.
Whether or not we care to admit it, climate change is a prominent
factor in how the nations of the world today weigh the merits of
various new alliances. European countries are moving closer
together these days to deal with climate change, which has, in its
way, strengthened European unity. It has also been behind regional
cooperation in other regions. The G8 Group will probably see more
conflicts among its members over the issue, such as between the US
and EU or Russia and the EU. They will also have to commit to
better coordination over climate change. China will no doubt feel
similar effects in its relations with the rest of the world because
of climate change.
The author is a research fellow with the Joint Program on
Globalization under the CRF-Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace.
(China Daily July 17, 2007)
