A new threat assessment from US counter-terrorism analysts says
Al-Qaida has used its safe haven along the Afghanistan-Pakistan
border to restore its operating capabilities to a level unseen
since the months before September 11, 2001.
A counter-terrorism official familiar with a five-page summary
of the document - Al-Qaida Better Positioned to Strike the West -
called it a stark appraisal. The analysis will be part of a broader
meeting at the White House yesterday (early this morning Beijing
time) about an upcoming National Intelligence Estimate. The
official and others spoke to the Associated Press on condition they
not be identified because the report remains classified.
The findings suggest that the network that launched the most
devastating terror attack on US soil has been able to regroup
despite nearly six years of bombings, war and other tactics aimed
at dismantling it.
The threat assessment focuses on the terror group's safe haven
in Pakistan and makes a range of observations about the threat
posed to the US and its allies, officials said.
Counter-terrorism officials have been increasingly concerned
over Al-Qaida's recent operations. Earlier this week, Homeland
Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said he had a "gut feeling"
that the US faced a heightened risk of attack this summer. Still,
numerous government officials say they know of no specific,
credible threat of a new attack on US soil.
Al-Qaida is "considerably operationally stronger than a year
ago" and has "regrouped to an extent not seen since 2001," the
counter-terrorism official said, paraphrasing the report's
conclusions. "They are showing greater and greater ability to plan
attacks in Europe and the US."
The group also has created "the most robust training program
since 2001, with an interest in using European operatives," the
official quoted the report as saying.
At the same time, the report speaks of "significant gaps in
intelligence" so US authorities may be ignorant of potential or
planned attacks, the official said.
John Kringen, who heads the CIA's analysis directorate, echoed
the concerns over Al-Qaida's resurgence during testimony and
conversations with reporters at a House Armed Services Committee
hearing on Wednesday. "They seem to be fairly well settled into the
safe haven and the ungoverned spaces of Pakistan," Kringen
testified. "We see more training. We see more money. We see more
communications. We see that activity rising."
The threat assessment comes as the 16 US intelligence agencies
prepare a National Intelligence Estimate focusing on threats to the
US. A senior intelligence official, who, too, spoke on condition of
anonymity while the high-level analysis was being completed, said
the document has been in the works for roughly two years.
Kringen and aides to National Intelligence Director Mike
McConnell would not comment on the details of that analysis.
"Preparation of the estimate is not a response to any specific
threat," McConnell's spokesman Ross Feinstein said. It probably
will be ready for distribution this summer.
Kringen said he wouldn't attach a summer time frame to the
concern. In studying the threat, he said he begins with the premise
that Al-Qaida would consider attacking the US a "home run hit" and
that the easiest way to get into the US would be through
Europe.
Several European countries - among them Britain, Denmark,
Germany and the Netherlands - are highlighted in the threat
assessment partly because they have arrangements with the Pakistani
government that allow their citizens easier access to Pakistan than
others, according to the counter-terrorism official. This is more
troubling because all four are part of the US visa waiver program,
and their citizens can enter the US without additional security
scrutiny.
The Bush administration has repeatedly cited Al-Qaida as a key
justification for continuing the fight in Iraq. "The No. 1 enemy in
Iraq is Al-Qaida," White House press secretary Tony Snow said on
Wednesday. "Al-Qaida continues to be the chief organizer of mayhem
in Iraq."
The findings could bolster the president's hand at a moment when
support on Capitol Hill for the war is eroding and the
administration is struggling to defend its decision for a military
build-up in Iraq.
The threat assessment says Al-Qaida stepped up efforts to
"improve its core operational capability" in late 2004 but did not
succeed until December of 2006 after the Pakistani government
signed a peace agreement with tribal leaders that effectively
removed military presence from the northwest frontier with
Afghanistan.
The agreement allows Taliban and Al-Qaida operatives to move
across the border with impunity and establish and run training
centers, the official quoted the report as saying. It also says
that Al-Qaida is particularly interested in building up the numbers
in its middle ranks, or operational positions, so there is not as
great a lag in attacks when such people are killed.
"Being No. 3 in Al-Qaida is a bad job. We regularly get to the
No. 3 person," Tom Fingar, the top US intelligence analyst, told
the House panel.
The report also notes that Al-Qaida has increased its public
statements, although analysts stressed that those video and audio
messages aren't reliable indicators of the actions the group may
take.
(China Daily via agencies July 13, 2007)
