Russia and the United States are currently involved in a fierce
tussle over the US plan to deploy a missile shield - "theater
missile defense" (TMD) systems - in Eastern Europe. There has been
talk of the return to a Cold War mentality.
Early this year the US proposed to Poland and the Czech Republic
the resumption of negotiations over establishing TMD bases in their
countries. Soon afterwards the Bush administration announced its
plan to deploy 10 land-based long-range missile defense batteries
in Poland and one medium-range radar facility in the Czech Republic
by 2010.
Russia's immediate response was fury, accusing the United States
of threatening Russian security. The dispute has been heating up
with Russia resorting to retaliatory measures, causing bilateral
ties to approach the freezing point.
On the US side, from President George W. Bush, Secretary of
State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates down to
all departments concerned, the Washington spin mechanism scrambled
into damage control with multiple versions of the same explanation,
which basically says:
First, the United States plan to deploy TMD systems in Eastern
Europe is primarily intended to intercept possible missile attacks
from Iran, and the United States has to be prepared though Iran is
not currently capable of such attacks. The United States also
believes Iranian missiles will pose a real threat to Europe around
the year 2015 and it cannot slow down the process of TMD deployment
in Eastern Europe.
Second, the decision to allow US TMD systems is Poland's and the
Czech Republic's own. In fact, news reports have said more than
half the public in these countries opposes the TMD deployment plan
and Polish Defense Minister Aleksander Szczyglo promised his
country would reject the deal if the US terms are found
unacceptable.
The United States hopes to cooperate with the Czech Republic,
Poland and Britain in a bid to link the TMD systems in the two East
European nations with those of NATO to protect the entire Western
military alliance.
Third, the plan is not aimed at Russia but will actually help
protect Russia's western region. The number of TMD missiles the
United States plans to deploy in Eastern Europe is too small to
counter Russia's huge arsenal. In terms of speed and number, the
TMD systems can only track a tiny portion of the incoming Russian
missiles even if radar does detect them. Official missile test
results published by Moscow showed US missile defense can't stop a
Russian attack, which also indicates the US missile defense systems
would not be aimed at Russia.
Fourth, Russia can benefit from the US TMD systems as the two
sides can cooperate in missile technology, share early-warning
data, hook up their own TMD systems and expand joint operations in
missile defense. The United States is not trying to sneak in the
TMD systems and it would welcome Russia's involvement.
Fifth, with or without Russia's cooperation, the United States
will not abandon the plan. It is Russia's accusations that will
"revive the Cold War", and the security of the United States is
inseparable from that of Europe. Threatening Europe will help no
one.
In short, the United States does not see Russia as an enemy and
hopes Russia will not see America as an enemy. The Soviet era is
over and the two sides should not trade verbal attacks as they did
in the past. The two sides can work together against common
threats.
On the Russian side, from President Vladimir Putin and Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov to other government officials and the media,
the responses include:
First, the United States used Cold-War tactics to persuade
European countries to allow deployment of US missile defense
systems in their territories. Geographically, there is no doubt the
move is aimed at Russia and a real threat to Russia's nuclear
capabilities.
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Second, the United States claim that the move is aimed at Iran and
North Korea is groundless. It does not reflect military reality
because the purported missiles from Iran and North Korea will be
"most certainly pointed in other directions".
The deployment of US radar and TMD missiles could trigger a new
Cold War while offering no defense against possible or imagined
threats from Middle Eastern or East Asian countries. It has already
created new cracks in Europe and will trigger a fresh round of arms
races there. If given free rein, the United States will turn Europe
into a "powder keg" and the likelihood of a nuclear duel could
increase.
Third, the United States plan to deploy TMD systems in Eastern
Europe is tantamount to nullifying the international community's
political efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation over such issues
as the Iranian nuclear crisis. The United States has in effect
rejected the international community's political and diplomatic
efforts to resolve international disputes.
Fourth, the Bush administration is abusing its military might in
a bid to dominate the world. Not just the Russians but all
Europeans will become hostages of the US missile defense system. As
it threatens Russia's security, the nation will take the system as
a target for elimination.
Fifth, Russia does not consider the US TMD deployment plan a
defensive measure, because it will allow the United States to
launch preemptive strikes and destroy the global strategic balance.
The Russian strategic missile forces will take any action necessary
to render it ineffective.
Russia also took a number of resolute measures in response,
including suspending the implementation of the European
Conventional Armed Forces Treaty; successfully test firing one of
its newest RS-24 intercontinental ballistic missiles "capable of
destroying any existing or future missile defense system"; and
putting Washington in a fix by suggesting that the United States
redeploy its TMD systems intended for Poland and the Czech Republic
to the former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan or Turkey or even Iraq,
closer to the supposed origin of the threats.
The United States plan to deploy its TMD systems in Eastern
Europe is generally considered to be aimed at Russia.
The eastward expansion by NATO, the "color revolutions" in
former Soviet republics and deployment of missile defense systems
could all prevent Russia from getting stronger, squeezing its
strategic space.
During the early stage of NATO's eastward expansion, Russia was
weak and could only hunker down and brood. When the "color
revolutions" took place, Russia was on the rebound and able to
straighten up in response to the challenges. Now, faced with
planned US deployment of TMD systems, Russia is fighting back.
To the Russian government, the US missile defense systems in
Eastern Europe are part of the strategic configuration that
includes similar systems in Alaska and East Asia to contain Russia
from both the east and west. Russia is apparently weighing the
implications of this TMD issue from a global perspective.
The United States did not inform Russia of its plan to deploy
missile defense systems in Eastern Europe beforehand, which Russia
perceived as violating the agreement on bilateral ties. Moscow
therefore insists that any future dialogue on this issue must
adhere to three principles: issues to be resolved must be real;
cooperation must be on an equal footing; and any cooperation must
also serve Russia's interests and security.
The construction of a missile defense system in Eastern Europe
could assume any of the following three formats: going ahead
unilaterally as the United States has planned with deployment in
Poland and the Czech Republic; building a Europe-wide missile
defense network within the framework of NATO as the European Union
wants; and NATO cooperation with Russia to build a system which
Russia envisions. The latter two share some mutual points.
Russian-US relations have cooled down recently but not to the
point of a new Cold War. The two sides are in serious dispute over
the missile defense issue but it is only a matter of time before
they find a way to reach a compromise.
It won't be easy for them to maintain their strategic
partnership, but there is always room for cooperation in areas such
as stopping nuclear proliferation, fighting terrorism and weeding
out drug trafficking and money laundering. The planned US visit by
Putin should be an opportunity for the two sides to make
amends.
(China Daily June 20, 2007)
