An armed conflict against Iran could develop into a regional
war, which would be felt across the entire world, said a Chinese
Middle East expert.
With two US aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf, and the
United States and Iran seemingly staging large-scale retaliatory
military exercises, the region is becoming an ammunition dump which
would only take a spark to ignite, said Hua Liming, a former
Chinese ambassador to Iran between 1991 and 1995.
"If not well handled, any spark could cause a big fire to this
explosive region," said Hua.
On Tuesday, US warplanes took off from two aircraft carriers in
the US Navy's largest show of force in the Gulf since the 2003
invasion of Iraq.
The maneuvers, involving 15 American ships and more than 100
aircraft, is sure to exacerbate tensions with Iran, which has
frequently condemned the US military presence off its
coastline.
The exercises began only four days after Iran captured 15
British soldiers allegedly at the mouth of the Shatt al-Arab
waterway, which marks the southern stretch of Iraq's border with
Iran.
All these activities remind people of the period just before the
United States was about to attack Iraq four years ago," Hua
said.
"But even if the military deployment is completed, it is going
to be extremely difficult for Washington to decide whether to use
these forces."
Bush, along with military officers at the Pentagon, might paint
a picture in their minds of overthrowing a hostile regime in the
region, but they will have to spend even more time thinking
seriously about the consequences once the first cannon is fired,
Hua said.
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He noted that Iranian missiles cannot hit the United States, but
they are capable of delivering a decisive blow to US military bases
in the Middle East.
Even days before Saturday's UN vote on a new resolution against
Iran, its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a televised
speech his country would respond to any new UN sanctions by all
means to defend itself from threats.
"If they take illegal actions, we too can take illegal actions,"
Khamenei said, without elaborating.
The UN Security Council passed Resolution 1747 unanimously on
Saturday, which includes a ban on Iranian arms exports, and the
freeze of assets of an additional 28 individuals and entities
involved in Iran's nuclear and missile programs.
The resolution was immediately rejected by top Iranian
officials, including President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
The so-called "illegal actions" mentioned by Iran could involve
the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the entrance to the Persian
Gulf from the Indian Ocean, striking US overseas military bases, or
using its influence in the Middle East to fan more hatred in the
decades-long confrontation between the Palestinians and Israelis,
Hua said.
"It (the war against Iran) could develop into a regional war,
which would be felt across the entire world," he said. But the new
UN resolution shows that the international community is taking a
unified position and have in mind a peaceful way to resolve Iran's
nuclear standoff, Hua said.
With 15 nations voting for more sanctions, the new resolution
can be considered added diplomatic pressure rather than substantial
punishment, he said.
Hua noted there were only 20 months left before Bush's second
term ends.
"It is unlikely that the president will launch another war which
cannot be finished within his term," Hua said, adding that in
American history, no president has ever launched three unfinished
wars.
Both the European Union and the United States insist that
Teheran stop its nuclear program immediately, but they differ on
sanctions, with the EU in favor of a milder form the US
stronger.
Their differences in stance is a reflection of their interests
in the region. European nations such as Germany, France and Italy
have huge economic interests in Iran, especially in energy, and are
worried that tougher sanctions or a military attack could hurt
their businesses in Iran.
Germany has become Iran's biggest trade partner, while European
companies such as Shell, BP and Total will not sit back and watch
their interests go up in smoke, Hua said.
The three biggest countries in the EU Germany, France and
Britain import most of their oil from Iran and other Middle East
countries, he said.
On the other hand, the United States, after decades of
confrontation with Teheran, does not have any economic presence in
the oil-producing country, and its oil imports from other countries
in the region only accounts for a small portion of its total
consumption.
Given their huge interests in the Middle East, some European
nations have announced they are opposed to any military attack.
Some scars have already been left on relations between the
United States and the EU, following the US invasion of Iraq in
2003. Countries such as France and Germany were openly against
it.
"If the United States goes it alone again, it would drive
another nail in the coffin of the transatlantic relationship," Hua
said.
He also compared North Korea with that of Iran.
Both countries were named "evil" states by US President George
W. Bush and targeted as a threat to world peace.
Both countries now mistrust the United States and feel there are
being bullied by an unfriendly superpower.
Like North Korea, Iran also wants to have a guarantee of
security from the Untied States, which the White House has refused,
Hua said.
Starting from 2003 when Iran and the international community
began their long-running negotiations, Teheran, on many occasions,
had sent a message to the United States that if Washington could
provide the country with a security guarantee and acknowledge its
status as a regional power, it would consider a compromise or even
drop its nuclear plan.
But Washington does not want to offer such a guarantee to a
country, it does not trust, regardless of Iran's influence in the
region, Hua said.
(China Daily March 29, 2007)
