According to estimates by the United Nations, the global economy
expanded by 3.8 percent last year, continuing the strong
performance recorded since 2003.
Led by China and India, developing countries were prominent
among the best performing economies, expanding by 6.5 percent on
average in 2006.
But can this apparently benign pattern of global growth be
sustained, particularly since growth has been accompanied by
ever-widening global financial imbalances?
The outlook for 2007 is for weakening global economic growth.
The UN's World Economic Situation and Prospects 2007 cautions that
a weaker housing market will undermine US growth.
Consequently, global economic expansion will slow, as no other
major country is set to take over as the main engine of growth.
With slowing world economic growth, US financing needs could
cause a drop in investors' confidence in the future of US-based
assets, precipitating a sharp dollar depreciation.
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The UN report observes that national economic policies and existing
multilateral settings are not designed to mitigate effectively the
risk of a global slowdown or to address global imbalances.
In Europe and Japan, for example, monetary and fiscal policies
have been tightening in response to domestic concerns, further
slowing the world economy.
The build-up of official reserves in East Asia and other
developing countries will provide them with extra means to deal
with possible external shocks.
However, it has also limited the expansion of domestic demand
and import growth, exacerbating rather than redressing the global
imbalances.
Of course, no single government can bear all the costs of the
policies needed to correct today's global imbalances.
But an internationally agreed set of policies could help reduce
the risk of weaker growth in the major economies, maintain
confidence in the stability of international financial markets, and
avoid a hard landing for the dollar.
This would require, for instance, stimulating growth in Europe,
Asia, and the major oil exporters in order to offset the
contractionary effect on the world economy of adjustment in the US,
which should include more restrictive fiscal policies, less private
consumption, and higher domestic savings to reduce its external
deficit.
Exchange rates should be realigned in a coordinated fashion to
stimulate exports from deficit countries and import demand from
surplus countries.
This is not just a matter of revaluing the Chinese currency, as
argued by some US policymakers, but requires gradual adjustment of
most major currencies against the dollar in conjunction with
concerted fiscal and monetary policy adjustments in the rest of the
world.
Existing platforms, such as the G-8 summits, are unsuitable to
achieve this course of action, mainly because key players from the
developing world are not included.
The multilateral surveillance mechanisms launched last year by
the IMF are a step in the right direction, but only if they become
part of an institutionalized multilateral mechanism of surveillance
and policy coordination.
Jose Antonio Ocampo is UN Under-Secretary General; Rob Vos
is director, development policy and analysis division of the United
Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The views are
their own. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2007.
www.project-syndicate.org.
(Shanghai Daily March 15, 2007)
