By Paul Bowles and Wang Baotai
For the past three years, the US administration has been
publicly pressuring China's policymakers to allow the renminbi to
appreciate. In response, China's policymakers have taken small
steps in this direction but have sought to resist US pressure.
As we look to the future, however, China's reemergence on the
global economic scene raises the possibility of role reversal. Will
China's rising economic power and burgeoning monetary muscle lead
to pressures on the dollar which might threaten its value and its
role as the international reserve currency? If this were to occur,
then it would likely lead to the US administration's urging the
Chinese to support the value of the dollar and not to move out of
holding dollar reserves.
The future role of the US dollar as the world's key currency
depends in no small part on China. But it is not China's
reemergence as an economic power that points to the end of the
dominance of the dollar. Nor do we see much possibility of any
Asian currency unit being a challenger.
More problematic for the future of the dollar as the undisputed
international currency is that current tensions in the bilateral
US-China economic relationship are likely to be enduring ones.
China's foreign exchange regime is unlikely to change
significantly over the medium term, defined as the next five to 10
years, and China's bilateral trade surplus with the US is also a
medium term phenomenon.
China's foreign exchange reserves are likely to continue at high
levels. The US-China bilateral relationship is therefore critical
in managing the tensions which arise as a result of the trade
imbalances and reserve buildup.
It is true that both the US and China have strong interests in
preserving a stable international economic and monetary order. But
managing this order is the challenge. It is not malevolence but
rather policy miscalculations and market reactions which pose the
greatest threat to the future value and role of the dollar.
The emergence of China as an economic power does not, in itself,
imply a reduced role in the medium to long term for the US
dollar.
Looking to historical experience as a reliable guide, the pound
sterling continued to play a significant role in the international
monetary system long after Britain's economic preeminence was
lost.
Even if simple extrapolation exercises are accurate and China
overtakes the US as the world's largest economy by mid-century, the
dollar is likely to continue for a significant time thereafter as
the world's leading currency.
There will be a threat to the dollar's dominance if current
economic policies and imbalances are not properly managed. The
current situation is one marked by China's having a large bilateral
trade surplus with the US, a rapid buildup of official reserves
already exceeding US$1 trillion, and a slowly appreciating renminbi
against the US dollar.
Not surprisingly, this situation has caused considerable tension
between the United States and China, with the US pressuring China
to let the renminbi appreciate in an effort to reduce the bilateral
trade deficit.
The Schumer-Graham proposal for a 27.5 percent tariff on Chinese
imports to offset the extent of China's alleged "currency
manipulation" remains an option before the US Senate.
Some change in the direction of greater exchange rate
flexibility is likely, and indeed is already happening with the
faster appreciation of the renminbi. But it is highly likely that
the change will be gradual and will fall far short of the 20 to 40
percent appreciation that US legislators are seeking.
This stems partly from the imperative of providing jobs in
China's export sector and from an analysis of what happened when
other countries undertook large scale currency realignments.
The exchange rate realignments of the past, such as those with
Japan in 1985 and South Korea in 1989, have been seen as an attempt
by the US to force other countries to adjust their policies in the
name of burden sharing but with the US not accepting its share of
the burden.
While China may be willing to go some way down this road, top
leaders do not see it as being in China's economic interests to
move more than gradually on this issue.
If we look at the trade picture apart from the past few years,
China's export growth has not been exceptional by East Asian
standards.
If we look at comparable historical experiences, China's export
growth might be expected to continue to increase substantially
while slowing somewhat from the exceptionally rapid pace of the
early 2000s.
China is following the East Asian growth experience in its
ability to avoid the trade deficits (and associated balance of
payments constraints) which have plagued development efforts in
other regions, most notably Latin America.
There is no historical comfort here for those looking for a
quick solution to current global imbalances.
Given that we expect the exchange rate regime to change only
slowly and the trade imbalance to continue, China's massive foreign
exchange reserves will also continue to climb. The trade surplus is
a major source of the rising official reserves, and foreign direct
investments are expected to continue to be positive and
significant.
Our guess as to the most likely path of events over the medium
term, therefore, is that, firstly, we will not see a dramatic
change in China's exchange rate regime or a rapid change in the
value of the renminbi relative to the US dollar.
Certainly, some appreciation can be expected along with a
gradual widening of the currency trading band. But the key word
here is gradual. China's reforms have been premised on gradualism
and this is not about to change with respect to the exchange
rate.
Furthermore, Chinese analysis of the impact on Japan of the 1985
Plaza Accord means that its leaders will not be pressured into
entering a similar type of agreement with the US.
China's export growth is likely to continue over the medium term
although probably at a reduced rate. The comparative historical
experience of other East Asian countries suggests that, in general,
China's experience has not been exceptional and there is,
therefore, no reason to expect a sudden slowdown or reversal.
At the same time, the export growth of the past four or five
years has been exceptional and is likely to either slow down or be
reigned in. From a policy perspective, the export-led
industrialization strategy is seen within China as responsible to a
considerable degree for the widening regional income inequalities,
which the leadership views as threatening social stability.
Over the medium term a greater reliance on the domestic economy
can be expected, a shift again gradual which may lower the trade
surplus.
The level of China's foreign reserves is recognized as
excessive, causing problems for policymakers both domestically and
internationally.
While the scale of reserves and the switch to a foreign exchange
basket float mean that diversification out of the US dollar is
likely, again this can be expected to occur gradually. It will not
be in the interests of the Chinese leadership to spark a fall in
the value of the dollar.
The gradual changes that we see happening all mean that the
current economic tensions between China and the US are likely to be
enduring ones.
Managing the interests of both China and the US over the medium
term in the face of these enduring economic tensions will be no
easy matter.
On the Chinese side, policymakers wish to maintain the current
exchange rate regime. At the same time, they want to gradually
reduce the trade surplus although they recognize that this will not
necessarily happen with the US bilateral surplus and prevent
foreign exchange reserves from increasing much further.
But this is a difficult task with potentially inconsistent
objectives (such as maintaining the exchange rate regime while
avoiding a further reserve buildup).
On the US side, policymakers have expressed the desire to see
the renminbi appreciate substantially against the US dollar and for
the bilateral trade deficit with China to shrink significantly so
that more painful domestic structural changes can be avoided.
The problem for the US policymakers is that, even if they were
successful in achieving a significant renminbi appreciation, this
may do little to solve either the bilateral or overall trade
deficit.
Both sets of policymakers have their own interests and
objectives. Both the US and China have an overarching common
interest in the preservation of a stable international economic and
monetary order.
However, they have different interests within it and the main
threat to the dollar arises from the scope for mismanagement and
the length of time during which cooperation will be needed.
US unilateralism, hectoring and demands coupled with Chinese
nationalism and exclusion from a major role in international
financial institutions leave plenty of room for overreaction,
political miscalculations and policy errors.
The only credible alternative to the dollar is the euro.
Although China's central bank, along with others in Asia, would
undoubtedly like to diversify its reserve holdings to a greater
extent and shift into euros, it is not in China's interests to do
so in a way which sparks a panic in the markets.
But while malevolence is unlikely, the scope for policy
miscalculations and misunderstandings between China and the US is
large. The future of the dollar rests in no small measure on the
ability of the two powers to successfully navigate the rocky road
ahead.
Professors Paul Bowles and Wang Baotai teach economics at
the University of Northern British Columbia, Canada.
(China Daily February 27, 2007)
