By Madhav D.Nalapat
The foreign ministers of the three giants of the Asian landmass
Russia, China and India meet today in New Delhi on what will,
hopefully, lead to a trilateral global alliance promoting
international peace, prosperity and parity.
Much work remains to make this dream a reality. But the progress
made in the past three years leads to optimism that within the next
six years, at most, a framework agreement will be signed
formalizing this major partnership.
The principal objectives would be to ensure that
(1) all Asian countries are allowed to pursue their own paths to
political, economic and social development, without outside
pressure;
(2) no single country can dominate Asia or any corner of the
continent, including the three trilateral partners; and
(3) a worldwide balance is established so that healthy
cooperation rather than confrontation becomes the norm in relations
between countries.
Both India and China have historically relied on soft power to
extend their influence. Although Chinese mariners scoured the
oceans of the world before the Europeans, not a single country was
taken over by force.
The port calls became occasions for an exchange of views and
products, although the short-sightedness of future Chinese emperors
prevented the country from following up on these developments.
China withdrew into itself, becoming ever weaker. Today, once
again, China is active throughout the world as a harbinger of
trade, not war.
The same goes for India and Russia. Since the disastrous
intervention in Afghanistan in 1979, Moscow has avoided entering
into combat anywhere in the globe, even where its interests have
been severely affected, as in some of the countries of the "Near
Abroad". This is in contrast to the experience both historical and
current of those powers that are either European or have majority
populations of European descent.
It is worth noting that the European powers all won special
advantages in the rest of the world not by peaceful cooperation but
by conquest. This is perhaps the reason that soldiers, sailors and
airmen play a much bigger role in Western foreign policy than
diplomats.
The Western world has relied on tooth and claw to establish and
retain its supremacy. In today's world, this state of affairs is
counter-productive even for the West.
A trilateral India-China-Russia alliance would act as a check on
such action. It would exert pressure for nations not to resort to
force, an outcome that would benefit the entire globe, including
Western countries.
Although the Russian people look European, the fact is that they
have their own mindset, tradition and values. Hence they will
always be seen as outsiders by continental European powers such as
Germany and France. These countries recognize Russia as the only
nearby country with the potential to overshadow both of them,
should Moscow ever be admitted into the European Union.
After years of seeking to follow the Europeans by leaving behind
their Russian heritage, the Russian leadership has finally realized
that the major continental European powers have zero intention of
giving parity let alone primacy to Moscow.
Since then, Russian President Vladimir Putin has focused as much
on Asia as on Europe, and with far better results. This has opened
the way for an India-China-Russia alliance, since Russia remains
the strategic giant among the three.
In the case of China, both Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping
understood that there would always be a clash of interests in a
relationship with the West. At the same time, some Chinese scholars
have believed that it is possible to create an equitable
partnership with the West (especially the US), much as Putin tried.
Today, I believe the strong leadership under President Hu Jintao
has clearly recognized that China needs to rely on its own strength
and that the best way for its continuous development is through
partnerships with its neighbors, especially India and Russia.
In future talks with Russia, India and China, hopefully more
countries in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and even countries in
South America and Africa will be at the table.
The change in attitude of the leadership in both China and
Russia towards the emerging opportunities for cooperation with
India is driving forward this partnership.
In the case of India, after six decades of conducting a foreign
policy independent of the West, a team similar in its geopolitical
culture to Boris Yeltsin is now in office in New Delhi. For them,
the desirable path is to accommodate Western demands and needs.
China has also been through such a phase, but it lasted less
than a decade.
In contrast, for Russia, this Westernized phase lasted from 1985
till 2003. The process began with Mikhail Gorbachev and lasted into
the first years of the Putin administration. In 2003, Moscow
finally accepted that the policy of the continental European powers
was to cut away at its relationships and spheres of influence with
the goal of making Moscow irrelevant in Europe.
The reality is that Russia's nuclear and missile arsenal gives
it a weight far greater than that of Germany, France and Italy
combined.
This leaves India a relative pygmy in the strategic field. But
the country's scientific base is strong enough to close the gap
within a decade, once the political leadership decides on such a
course.
Since the mid-1990s, several people within the Indian strategic
establishment including this writer believed that the Western world
would be farsighted enough to make India a partner on equal
terms.
However, it is now clear that the Western world still sees India
much as the British did in the past a secondary power that ought to
be satisfied with crumbs.
This refusal of the West to acknowledge the equality of China,
Russia and India with themselves is the reason that the years ahead
are likely to witness the birth of a possible India-China-Russia
alliance. It would become the biggest geopolitical factor in Asia,
with possible extension of the alliance to countries in Africa and
South America.
?
This future may be in the making when the foreign ministers of the
three countries that comprise 40 percent of the world's population
meet today.
The author is director of the School of Geopolitics, Manipal
Academy of Higher Education, India. He was the first scholar to
suggest an India-Russia-China alliance, in 1983.
(China Daily February 14, 2007)
