By Gong Shaopeng
Overshadowed by media coverage of the escalating bloodshed in
Iraq, the Diplomatic Quartet on the Middle East peace process
reconvened last Friday in Washington, DC. The gathering was a
speedy response to the meeting proposed by US Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice mid-January.
In a statement at the close of the meeting, the Quartet composed
of the European Union, Russia, the United Nations and the US said
it would push to revive the Palestinian-Israeli talks in line with
the "Quartet roadmap" but voiced deep concern about the violence
among Palestinians that threatens to undermine the effort.
Besides Rice, participants included UN Secretary General Ban
Ki-moon, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, German Foreign
Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, whose country holds the six-month
EU presidency, High Representative for European Foreign and
Security Policy Javier Solana and European Commissioner for
External Relations Benita Ferrero-Waldner.
The Quartet stated that it recognized "the critical need to end
the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which would contribute to
security and stability in the region".
The members pledged "to support efforts to put in place a
process with the goal of ending the (Israeli) occupation that began
in 1967 and creating an independent, democratic and viable
Palestinian State, living side-by-side in peace and security with
Israel, and reaffirmed its commitment to a just, lasting, and
comprehensive peace based on UN Security Council resolutions 242
and 338".
The Quartet roadmap was initiated by US President George W. Bush
in 2003, with agreement from the Quartet to implement it in three
phases.
First, the Palestinian authority should take immediate steps to
end all violence against Israel. In return, the Israeli government
should immediately dismantle settlement outposts erected in
occupied Palestinian areas since March 2001.
In the second phase, both the Israelis and the Palestinians
along with the Quartet would focus on creating an independent
Palestinian State with provisional borders and attributes of
sovereignty.
Phase three objectives were to sign a permanent status agreement
and end the Palestinian-Israeli conflict before the end of
2005.
However, from the very start, the roadmap ran into difficulties.
At the end of 2003, then Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon
refused to continue negotiations with the Palestinian Authority and
turned to his "unilateral plan". As a result, the Palestinian
issues failed to be fully resolved as scheduled.
The difficulties in implementing the Quartet roadmap lie in the
fact that the Bush administration did not place the resolution of
the Palestinian-Israeli conflict at the core of its Middle East
policy.
The Bush administration's foreign policy in its first term was
deeply influenced by the neo-conservatives, with emphasis on
promoting Western values.
When President Bush declared the "end" of the Iraq War in May
2003, he immediately began to promote his Greater Middle East
Initiative, aiming to instill a Western political system and values
in Middle East countries, with Iraq as a model.
Reality has gone against the will of the Bush administration.
Directed by the United States, Iraq produced a new constitution, a
new Congress and a Cabinet, but failed to end turbulence. Serious
sectarian conflicts have evolved and the death toll of US soldiers
has risen to more than 3,000.
Meanwhile, the Bush administration has found no way out in
dealing with Iran. After Mahmoud Ahmadinejad assumed the presidency
in August 2005, Iran restarted its uranium enrichment program. The
deteriorating Middle East situation made the Bush administration
aware that Iran now poses the biggest challenge to the US.
The administration's domestic wake-up call came with the
Republican loss of both houses of Congress in the mid-term
elections last November.
Facing both internal and external pressure, the Bush
administration had to renounce the neo-conservatives' rhetoric of
freedom and democracy in dealing with the Middle East. The
administration is now adopting a realist policy seeking allies in
the region to work together to curb the rising influence of
Iran.
However, if the US wants support from Arab allies, it must make
some progress on the core issue of the Middle East, namely, the
Palestinian issue. That is why the Bush administration has turned
its attention to resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict,
including reopening the process of the Quartet roadmap.
Unfortunately, by the time the Bush administration shifted its
focus back to the Palestine issue, dramatic changes had taken
place.
In the Palestinian Legislative Council election held in January
2006, Hamas defeated the Mahmound Abbas-led Palestine Liberation
Organization (PLO). Hamas won 76 of the 132 seats and established a
new Cabinet led by Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh.
Because the Hamas cabinet refuses to recognize the legitimacy of
Israel's existence, makes no commitment to fulfilling the peace
agreement reached between the PLO and Israel, and has not renounced
armed struggle, Israel refused to transfer the tax revenues it
collected from the Palestinians for the Palestinian Authority under
partial peace accords.
Isolating the Hamas government, the US and the EU halted
economic aid to Palestine. The result was that the Hamas cabinet
was mired in a financial crisis shortly after it took office. Some
165,000 civil servants and security forces the majority of whom are
Fatah members protested against the Hamas government's failure to
pay salaries. The Fatah protests finally escalated into conflicts
with Hamas armed forces.
Abbas has agreed to implement the roadmap and offered to
establish a united government with Hamas. However, the negotiations
produced no outcome. The sticking points involved reaching a
consensus on power distribution, particularly in the key posts of
minister of finance and minister of internal affairs.
Prior to the Quartet meeting, the US promised $86 million in aid
to the security forces loyal to Abbas. This triggered Hamas
suspicions that Fatah was planning to stage a military coup to
overthrow the Haniyeh cabinet in support of the US. Despite
numerous ceasefire agreements between the two sides, gunfire
between Hamas and Fatah continues to take lives in the Gaza
Strip.
If the conflicts within the Palestinian camp cannot be settled,
how can the Palestinians resume negotiations with Israel and how
can the Quartet roadmap process be reopened?
I firmly believe that the Quartet roadmap is an effective
approach to realizing land for peace through political negotiations
although I am deeply concerned over the current Palestinian
situation.
The good news is that the leaders of Fatah and Hamas, at the
call of Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah, have reportedly agreed to go
to the holy Muslim city of Mecca for talks to resolve their
differences.
I sincerely hope that the negotiations in Mecca will be
successful. I also hope the restarted Quartet roadmap will help
resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict a conflict that has lasted
for generations in a just, permanent and comprehensive way.
Gong Shaopeng is professor of international relations at the
Beijing-based Foreign Affairs University's Institute of
International Relations.
(China Daily February 6, 2007)
