By Yu Sui
The Russia-US relationship is one of the world's most closely
watched bilateral ties between two major powers.
Relations were good at one time then turned bad at another and
have kept alternating back and forth. Relations are now cold and
awkward after a love fest some years back. This Russia-US
relationship has its inherent logic for being inconsistent.
First of all, the short-lived love affair was the victim of
expediency. Today's Russia-US relationship has evolved from the
Soviet era. At that time it was a relationship between two
superpowers.
However, as Russia's national strength went downhill, the
relationship became one between one of the big powers and the only
superpower. That means Russia is now an underling. That said, with
its enormous potential with ambitions to match, Russians won't be
looking up at America forever.
Towards the end of his years in power as Russia's first
president, Boris Yeltsin began to turn his foreign policy from
totally West-looking to multi-directional, while the West still
believed he was sticking to the pro-Europe and US-style democracy
he had chosen.
When Vladimir Putin succeeded Yeltsin, he made it clear he would
not follow the Euro-American trail but rekindle the Russian spirit.
As the political mindset formed over recent history could not make
an immediate turn around, the Russia-US relationship remained
passionate in the early years of the Putin administration.
This warm relationship was for all to see when the leaders of
the two nations exchanged visits in those years.
During his US visit in November 2001, Putin and President George
W. Bush inked a joint communiqué sealing the new bilateral ties.
The message was that Russia and the US "have overcome the remnants
of the Cold War and no longer consider the other an enemy or
threat".
During his visit to Moscow in May 2002, Bush signed a joint
communiqué with Putin on the reduction of offensive strategic force
and a "new strategic relationship".
The communiqué states that Russia and the US "are committed to
the principles of developing our bilateral relations on the basis
of friendliness, cooperation, common values, trust, openness and
predictability". And it specifically says both sides "wish to
promote the stability, sovereignty and territorial integrity of all
nations" in Central Asia and the Caucasus.
Bush went so far as to tell Putin he would push Congress to
abolish legislation that restricts bilateral trade growth,
recognize Russia as a market economy as soon as possible, and help
Russia join the World Trade Organization. Putin said Russia-US ties
were entering a new era.
Russia-US relations had already experienced a new high in 2001
after 9/11, when Russia lent a hand in America's war on terror.
Russia needed to court the US as part of its national rejuvenation
strategy, but Moscow learned that Washington was not
dependable.
As Putin pushed forward his pragmatic reform policy, especially
after he adopted the so-called "manageable democracy" to maintain
the country's stability, the US became increasingly uneasy about
what Putin was doing. Washington openly faulted him for turning
back on the road to democracy, pursuing autocracy and trying to
bring back the Soviet era.
The US repeatedly instigated and supported the "color
revolutions" in former Soviet lands. The political changes weakened
Russia's geopolitical advantages and chilled the Russia-US
relationship along the way.
Though Russia sought to maintain a lasting bilateral
relationship with the US, the expedient nature of this relationship
was too obvious to miss.
The Russia-US relationship was destined for a roller- coaster
ride. The cooling down of Russia-US relationships have a lot to do
with the fact that the US became the sole superpower in the world,
with the relentless advance of economic globalization headed by
developed Western countries, and with the waning and then
resurgence of Russia's national strength.
While Washington, hell-bent on making sure it was the undisputed
leader in key international affairs, played its power game to the
hilt, Russia refused to be intimidated. It proceeded to show that
it had a say in weighty matters where its interests and esteem were
at stake.
But Russia knew its limits when it came to world influence.
Compared with the US, it was still a military giant but with a
dwarf economy. So it put equal emphasis on both economic and
military security. It replaced the idea of military might as
representing national strength with that of comprehensive national
strength. Its security strategy became part of its development
strategy.
In foreign affairs, it tried to make as few enemies and as many
friends as possible, improve its diplomacy, and avoid being
isolated again. Its fundamental principles are: Never allow any of
the former Soviet republics to become beachfronts for anti-Russia
moves; thwart at all cost Western allies' efforts to complete their
encirclement of Russian one way or another; and make sure the
country is not threatened by nuclear proliferation.
Russia pulled out all the stops to navigate among various power
centers very carefully and around the US in particular, in a bid to
build a favorable balance of power for itself at minimum cost.
Putin used his velvet-gloved iron hand and moved first whenever
possible in foreign affairs to win a bigger share of whatever would
benefit Russia.
Russia's premises to achieve national rejuvenation were to
secure national unity, economic acceleration and political
stability, while the US' Russian policy was designed to undermine
these safeguards. As Russia's economy improved with its pillar
energy industry holding strong, its ability to counter and rival
the US noticeably increased.
Russia does not have the kind of long-term cooperation mechanism
in political as well as military affairs with the US that the US
has maintained with its NATO allies nor the kind of economic
cooperation it has developed with China.
Russia and the US also hold different views on the threat posed
by terrorism, hence their varied focuses on anti-terror actions.
All this illustrates the relative weakness of the basis for the
Russia-US strategic partnership.
Nevertheless, their relationship, warm or cold, has survived
because of its pragmatism. When mutual assistance takes priority,
their cooperation and coordination shine. But when conflict and
rivalry come to the fore, they focus on kicking each other out of
the way.
Over the years, their strategic cooperation has managed to find
common ground even when their relations turned cold.
Looking ahead, factors such as national interests, major power
status and worldwide repercussions will decidedly influence
Russia-US relations. That means the two countries will likely elbow
more than assist each other.
The US has been trying to nurture a weak but stable Russia that
adopts American values. Given the fact that Russia is a huge
Eurasian country, it cannot help being a major country for the US
to guard against whether the US strategic focus remains on Europe
or extends toward Asia. Russia has been talking about going back to
its European roots, but still remembers it is a big Eurasian
country.
Russia plans to develop the Asian part of its vast territory and
is paying more attention to the Asia-Pacific region. Particularly
noteworthy is Russia's strategic partnerships with China and India
and its extensive cooperation with the two Asian giants. This to a
significant degree has drawn US attention to Asia.
But Russia-US cooperation can be expected to continue no matter
how cool their relationship becomes. For instance, Russia and the
US launched a new bilateral cooperation mechanism, a dialogue on
strategic security, in September 2006.
And two months later, when Bush made a refueling stop in Russia
on his way to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
Organization summit in Vietnam, Putin met with him at the airport
for an hour.
That meeting was followed by the November 19 signing of an
agreement between the two countries on Russia's World Trade
Organization membership. This removed the largest obstacle in
Russia's way to the international body.
The Iraq War has not only brought more of Europe's grudges
against Washington to light but also given Russia an opportunity to
play the role of cross-Atlantic mediator.
The Russia-US relationship is indeed complex. Even with forces
favoring pragmatic cooperation, it is probably next to impossible
for the two to become strategic partners in the real sense of the
term.
(The author is a researcher with Beijing-based Research
Center of Contemporary World.)
(China Daily January 23, 2007)
