Iran will be hesitant to use its oil as a weapon in its
confrontation with the West on the nuclear issue, nor will the UN
initiate sanctions on Iran's oil exports, Chinese analysts said
Tuesday.
"It is a double-edged sword and neither can win through this
way," said Yang Guang, director of the Institute of West-Asian and
African Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
"The oil card will be the last choice the two sides want to use,
and neither side wants to let the situation deteriorate to such a
level," Yang told China Daily.
Iran has repeated threats that it was ready to use its massive
oil exports as a weapon to defend itself if it felt necessary in an
international dispute over its atomic program, the country's
semi-official Fars news agency said Tuesday. "If necessary, Iran
will use any weapon to defend itself," said Iranian Oil Minister
Kazem Vaziri-Hamaneh.
Yang said the global oil price would definitely be influenced if
Iran cuts off its oil supply, since the market has scarcely spare
capacity of oil production to fill the breach.
Iran will not benefit from using the oil weapon either, since
about 80 percent of its export earnings come from oil, according to
Yang.
Yang added that Iran's petroleum products mainly rely on
imports, as the country doesn't have large capacity of petroleum
refinery despite its huge crude oil reserves and exports.
"Iran will suffer from a price hike of petroleum products in the
international market," he said.
Vaziri-Hamaneh has also repeatedly said the world's fourth
biggest crude producer would prefer not to play the oil card,
urging European countries to prevent "inappropriate" decisions if
they wanted Iran's oil to flow.
Zhang Xiaodong, secretary-general of China Association for
Middle Eastern Studies, said he was not optimistic on the prospects
of a quick settlement of Iranian nuclear issue.
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"It is not easy to change a nation's decision through sanctions,"
Zhang told China Daily. "As we can see, the international
community hasn't achieved the result they want through sanctions,"
he said.
Instead of forcing Iran to compromise, the sanctions provoked
Iran's tougher reactions, which is opposite to the sanctions'
original purpose, Zhang said.
The UN Security Council voted unanimously on Saturday to impose
sanctions on Iran's trade in sensitive nuclear materials and
technology, in an attempt to stop uranium enrichment work that
could produce material to be used in bombs.
However, Iran condemned the resolution passed as "a piece of
torn paper" that would not scare Teheran and vowed to speed up
uranium enrichment work.
China on Sunday called on all sides to resume talks on Iran's
nuclear program, saying that despite voting for UN sanctions on
Iran, it didn't think sanctions could solve the problem.
"We hope the UN resolution is carried out earnestly, but we
think sanctions are not the objective and cannot fundamentally
resolve the issue," Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao said
explaining China's vote in a statement on Sunday.
"Sanctions are not the end but a means to urge Iran to return to
negotiations," said Wang Guangya, China's UN ambassador.
Another Chinese analyst praised China's vote for the sanctions,
saying that it played a positive role in safeguarding the dignity
of the nuclear non-proliferation mechanism and helped prevent the
worsening of the Iranian nuclear crisis.
"Sanctions are not a punishment, but an effort to prevent the
situation in Iran getting worse, which is actually good for Iran,"
said Yin Gang, a senior researcher with the Institute of West-Asian
and African Studies.
Yin said that China's objective is to persuade Iran to adopt a
more co-operative attitude, and the sanctions, which could be
withdrawn, actually can act as leeway for diplomatic efforts.
(China Daily December 27, 2006)
