It took only one hour for the Thai military to launch and
declare success of a bloodless coup on Sept. 19, a phenomenon not
seen in Thai politics for 15 years, to oust Prime Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra.
And it took about half a month for the coup leaders to install
an interim government in early October led by former army chief
Surayud Chulanont, the new premier.
It will take roughly one year, as the government and the
military-led Council for National Security (CNS) has promised, to
draft a new Constitution to replace the annulled 1997 version, and
to facilitate a new general election by Oct. 2007.
Yet, nobody could tell how long it will take for the new
administration to eradicate the political legacy of Thaksin.
Political chaos leads to coup
When Thai Army-Commander-in-chief Sonthi Boonyaratkalin, allied
with other military and police chief commanders, declared on TV and
radio on Sept. 19 night a power seizure from the Thaksin government
in a surprisingly swift move, came the culmination of political
turmoil that started in early 2006 and had disturbed the order of
Thai people's lives.
At the end of 2005, a Thai media tycoon and former friend of
Thaksin, Sondhi Limthongkul, began his critical campaign on the
media against Thaksin, accusing him of corruption and abuse of
power.
This eventually developed into mass protests in Bangkok through
the first half of 2006. The campaign was joined by the Sondhi
group, disobedient Thai media and urban middle class whose
interests had been hurt by some of Thaksin's populist policies
including the low-cost health care scheme that earned him great
support among grassroots.
Fueled by the Thaksin family's what the protestors said
undervalued sale of Thai telecom giant Shin Corp to a Singaporean
investment company in January, the anti-Thaksin movements led by
the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) frequently staged mass
rallies, prompting Thaksin to dismiss the parliament and called a
snap election on April 2.
Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai party (TRT), boasting of the backing of
one sixth of the country's 60 million population, won the election
amid boycott by main opposition parties and doubts about its
legitimacy.
The election was later nullified by Thailand's Constitution
Court. An investigation was also carried out to probe the alleged
malfeasance by the election commission and irregularities by the
TRT and opposition parties during the April ballot. As a result,
three election commissioners were forced to resign and jailed.
Despite rescheduling of a general election for Oct. 15,
political climate remained tense due to a foiled bombing
assassination attempt on Thaksin in August and the later arrests of
four military suspects, which illustrated the gap between Thaksin
government and the military. Rumors about a military coup began to
spread.
Thaksin's fate undecided
A former telecommunication tycoon and Thailand's twice-elected
prime minister between 2001 and 2006, Thaksin was in New York
attending the United Nations General Assembly when the coup took
place quietly in the evening of Sept. 19. He failed to turn the
tables when his announcement declaring a state of emergency and
dismissing Sonthi was cut off minutes after going on air.
Thaksin has since been kept out of his homeland. It remains
unclear how and when Thaksin, who had run the Buddhist kingdom with
a CEO-model leadership, will end his exile.
The Sonthi-led CNS and the interim government have alleged that
Thaksin will have to wait for an indefinite "right time" to return
to the kingdom, and only after getting consent from one of
them.
Thaksin's lawyer has recently confirmed to the Thai press that
the deposed premier would not be back to the country before the
political situation returns to normal and he might even wash hands
from politics as his family always wished and his opponents always
demanded.
Under international pressure, the interim government has
recently announced the partial lifting of the martial law, which
was imposed after the coup. But the list left out the northern and
northeastern provinces, including Thaksin's hometown Chiang Mai,
the traditional voter base for him and a stronghold of the TRT
party.
Besides, the National Counter Corruption Commission and Assets
Examination Committee, appointed by the CNS after the coup, were
undertaking various corruption charges against Thaksin and former
cabinet members, which would prove to be an interminable legal
process.
?
Southern unrest unabated
Another hot potato the Surayud government has took over from the
Thaksin administration is the unabated separatist violence in the
deep south, namely the Muslim-dominated provinces of Pattani, Yala
and Narathiwat.
The wave of southern unrest, claimed more than 1,800 lives in
the past three years, has been on the rise recently, with drive-by
shootings and arson attacks targeting various groups of people on
almost a daily basis.
Surayud, who has frequently visited the region after coming into
office, reiterated that his government would end the unrest by
peaceful means. The government has also planned to create a special
economic zone to help promote development in the impoverished
region.
Although the peace-making efforts were hailed by international
and domestic rights groups, the government still failed to reach
reconciliation with the separatists, whose core force comprises a
younger generation of militants that took on more extreme tactics
and cared for no peace talk with the government, according to
analysts.
Hurdles not to be dodged
The political turmoil, however, has not had a big impact on the
kingdom's economy, as the National Economic and Social Development
Board (NESDB) on Dec. 4 revised its 2006 forecast for Thailand's
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate from previous 4.2-4.7
percent to 5 percent. Its 2007 forecast remained at 4.0-5.0
percent. Thai economy grew 4.5 percent last year, receding from 6.2
percent in 2004.
Thailand's exports remain strong with a two-digit growth rate by
now this year, though the appreciation of baht, the national
currency, to an eight-year high has aroused exporters' complaints
and prompted the central bank to plan measures to tighten
restrictions on the currency supply.
Some economists still voiced worries that an unclear political
direction could cause stock market stability and dampen
investments, undermining the country's economic growth as a
result.
On Dec. 10, an anti-coup demonstration, the first after the
Sept. 19 coup, was held in Bangkok to mark Thailand's Constitution
Day and protest against the rule of the CNS and the interim
government.
Having appeared tolerant with sporadic, small and generally
peaceful protests since the coup, the CNS has recently toughened
its stance to warn rally organizers not to have the protests turn
violent.
Yet, the Thai government would found no quick or easy fixes
exist for the troubled nation to end the southern unrest, upgrade
its disaster management, improve its international image, prevent a
possible comeback of Thaksin, and most of all, pull the country out
of disruption to be back on track.
(Xinhua News Agency December 20, 2006)
