By Kofi Annan
If there was any remaining doubt about the urgent need to combat
climate change, two reports issued last week should make the world
sit up and take notice. First, according to the latest data
submitted to the United Nations, the greenhouse-gas emissions of
the major industrialized countries continue to increase. Second, a
study by the former chief economist of the World Bank, Sir Nicholas
Stern of the United Kingdom, called climate change "the greatest
and widest-ranging market failure ever seen," with the potential to
shrink the global economy by 20 percent and to cause economic and
social disruption on a par with the two world wars and Great
Depression.
The scientific consensus, already clear and incontrovertible, is
today moving towards the more alarmed end of the spectrum. Many
scientists long known for their caution are now saying that warming
has reached dire levels, generating feedback loops that will take
us perilously close to a point of no return. A similar shift may
also be taking place among economists, with some formerly
circumspect analysts now saying it will cost far less to cut
emissions now than to adapt to the consequences later. Insurers,
meanwhile, have been paying out more and more each year to
compensate for extreme weather events. And growing numbers of
corporate and industry leaders have been voicing concern about
climate change as a business risk. The few skeptics who continue
trying to sow doubt should be seen for what they are: out of step,
out of arguments and just about out of time.
A major UN climate change conference opened on Monday in
Nairobi. The stakes are high indeed. Climate change has profound
implications for virtually all aspects of human well-being, from
jobs and health to food security and peace within and among
nations. Yet too often, climate change is seen as an environmental
problem when it should be part of the broader development and
economic agenda. Until we acknowledge the all-encompassing nature
of the threat, our response will fall short.
Environment ministers have been striving valiantly to mobilize
international action. But too many of their counterparts - energy,
finance, transport and industry ministers, even defence and foreign
secretaries - have been missing from the debate. Climate change
should be their concern as well. The barriers that have kept them
apart must be broken down, so that they can, in an integrated way,
think about how to "green" the massive investments in energy supply
that will be needed to meet burgeoning global demand over the next
30 years.
Doom-and-gloom scenarios meant to shock people into action often
end up having the opposite effect, and so it has been at times with
climate change. We must focus not only on the perils, but also on
the opportunities associated with climate change. Carbon markets
have reached a volume of US$30 billion this year, but their
potential remains largely unexploited. The Kyoto Protocol is now
fully operational, including a Clean Development Mechanism which
could generate US$100 billion for developing countries. The Stern
review suggests that markets for low-carbon energy products are
likely to be worth at least US$500 billion per year by 2050. Even
today, it is baffling that readily available energy-efficient
technologies and know-how are not used more often - a win-win
approach that produces less pollution, less warming, more
electricity and more output. Low emissions need not mean low growth
or stifling a country's development aspirations. And the savings
can buy time for solar, wind and other alternative energy sources
to be developed and made more cost-effective.
Efforts to prevent future emissions must not be allowed to
obscure the need to adapt to climate change, which will be an
enormous undertaking because of the massive carbon accumulations to
date. The world's poorest countries, many of them in Africa, are
least able to cope with this burden - which they had little role in
creating - and will need international help if they are not to be
further thwarted in their efforts to reach the Millennium
Development Goals.
But there is still time for all our societies to change course.
We mustn't fear the voters, or underestimate their willingness to
make large investments and long-term changes. People are yearning
to do what it takes to address this threat, and move to a safer and
sounder model of development. More and more businesses are eager to
do more, and only await the right incentives. The Nairobi
conference can and must be part of this gathering critical mass. It
must send a clear, credible signal that the world's political
echelon takes climate change seriously. The question is not whether
climate change is happening, but whether, in the face of this
emergency, we ourselves can change fast enough.
The author is Secretary-General of the United
Nations.
(China Daily November 9, 2006)
