By Yu Sui
The Foreign Ministry of North Korea announced on October 3 that
North Korea would conduct a nuclear test "in the field of
scientific research."
This drew grave concerns from the international community. On
October 6, the United Nations Security Council demanded that North
Korea not carry out the nuclear test and return unconditionally to
the six-party negotiating table.
However, on October 9, North Korea announced that it had
successfully exploded a nuclear device. This act of nuclear
proliferation, which goes against the will of the vast majority of
the world's countries, is bound to meet universal opposition and
condemnation.
Heated discussions in the international community and the media
involve the following questions that are worth our thoughts.
First, how should North Korea's nuclear test be reviewed
from a broad perspective?
The test means the escalation of the nuclear crisis on the
Korean Peninsula and deals a telling blow to the Six-Party Talks,
which had yielded initial success before the recess in September
2005. The nuclear test also presents a hard nut for China to
crack.
North Korea authorities claimed that the country carried out the
test out of self-defence considerations and that there was no
leakage of radioactive materials. Pyongyang also declared that it
would not use nuclear weapons first and that its pursuit of a
nuclear-free Korean Peninsula remained unchanged.
All this aims to do nothing but give legitimacy to its nuclear
blast and, in turn, win over sympathy from the international
community and divert international pressure.
In fact, North Korea's earlier missile test firing and the
nuclear test now are dictated half by the dire situation in which
it finds itself and half by the urge to whistle in the
graveyard.
In the past, its nuclear bid was half real and half for
blackmail. Now it has really done it, believing that only this
could aggrandize its strength among the world countries and
therefore garner the most possible benefits from negotiations.
However, it remains beyond North Korea's vista that going
nuclear is not the only choice, much less the right one. The
extremely expensive nuclear program will only make North Korea's
social and economic development, which is already caught in dire
straits, go from bad to worse, among other things.
A particularly bad scenario is a chain reaction in East Asia.
Worse still, weapons of mass destruction could fall into the hands
of terrorists with nuclear proliferation going unchecked.
Second, how should we evaluate the exterior factors that
prompted North Korea to make up its mind to go
nuclear?
After the Agreed Framework signed by the United States and North
Korea in October 1994 was invalided, North Korea leadership, stung
by the ugly names of "rogue state" and "axis of evil," may have
ever been living in the shadow of possible pre-emptive nuclear
strikes. This mentality is one of the important factors that have
led North Korea authorities to slide farther and farther down the
road of nuclear proliferation.
In fact, the participating countries in the Six-Party Talks,
China and Russia, for example, made unremitting efforts to find a
way out that both safeguards North Korea's national security and
facilitates its economic development.
Moreover, the six-party negotiations could do more, assuring
regional security as well as taking care of North Korea's
interests.
The crux of the matter, however, is the bilateral relations
between North Korea and United States. With the deepening of
mistrust between the two key players, new disputes kept cropping
up, which eventually stranded the negotiations on the rocks.
In spite of all this, however, North Korea's decision to go
nuclear is by no means a way out, neither facilitating the
resolution of the Korean Peninsula issue nor helping protect North
Korea's own interests. Worse, it draws international condemnation
onto North Korea itself.
Third, how should China's stance on the issue of North
Korea's nuclear bid be reviewed?
China has ever taken into consideration the interests of the
international community in general and North Korea in particular in
handling the issue and has done a lot of intermediary work. The
North Korea's nuclear test goes far beyond reason and China shows
clearly where it stands - definitely opposing the test.
On October 9, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that the
Chinese Government is resolutely opposed to the nuclear test and
reiterated that China has ever been committed to a nuclear-free
Korean Peninsula and nuclear non-proliferation. The statement
demanded North Korea keep its non-nuclear commitment, stop any acts
that could lead to further deterioration of the situation and
return to the Six-Party Talks.
The statement also appealed for all parties involved to remain
calm in dealing with the question and stick to diplomacy and
peaceful means in resolving the problem.
President Hu Jintao restated China's position on the issue in
his telephone conversation with US President George W. Bush on
October 9.
The last thing China wants is for the North Korea nuclear issue
to get out of control and tension and chaos to reign on the Korean
Peninsula.
Taking into account the latest developments, the possibility of
sanctions imposed on North Korea by the international community
looks likely. But it should be borne in mind that the Chinese
Government will act reasonably and cautiously on the issue of
imposing sanctions against North Korea.
Fourth, how should future China-North Korea relations be
predicted?
China shares identical positions on the North Korea's nuclear
test with other countries, including the United States. Some
people, therefore, said that China "sides with Washington." This
statement is wrong; rather, it should be said that the members of
the international community stand together against nuclear
proliferation.
The United States' hostility towards the North Korea is no
secret to all. China, however, has ever kept good-neighbor and
mutual-benefit relations with North Korea.
While the North Korea's nuclear test unavoidably brings a
negative impact to China-North Korea ties, this however does not
necessarily mean that China would abandon the traditional
friendship between the two nations. If China continues to provide
aid to North Korea in the future, it is for the sake of North
Korea's people, not a show of support for the North Korea's nuclear
test.
Fifth, how should the mechanisms of the Six-Party Talks
be appraised?
Some people claim that the six-party negotiations are dying.
This is an overstatement. It is by no means easy to build up the
platform of the Six-Party Talks. It helps North Korea safeguard its
own security and economic interests as well as facilitates
resolving the North Korea's nuclear bidding issue.
Currently, the Six-Party Talks have suffered setbacks, but the
talks will not die. North Korea has not yet slammed the door on
negotiation, and it has never stated that it would kill the
Six-Party Talks once and for all.
In view of all this, China should try its best to see that the
six-party negotiations be resumed and push the United States to
adopt a positive attitude towards North Korea's legitimate rights
and interests. The Korean Peninsula issue should be, after all,
addressed in the framework of the Six-Party Talks. Resorting
exclusively to pressuring will not work out.
The author is a senior research fellow with the Research
Centre of the Contemporary World.
(China Daily October 12, 2006)
