A leaked intelligence report of Osama bin Laden's death has met
skepticism from Western and Muslim governments, but may increase
clamor from his followers to show himself on video for the first
time in nearly two years.
One theory surrounding the mysterious French leak is that it was
designed to flush the al-Qaida leader into the open, prompting him
to release a new tape that might give a clue to his whereabouts and
state of health.
"Western intelligence, the Americans, the Saudis want bin Laden
to appear," said Diaa Rashwan, an expert on Islamist groups at the
al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo.
"Perhaps they're trying to agitate him to appear by video to try
to fix some information about his real (location)."
Rashwan said expectations of an imminent appearance by bin Laden
had mounted among contributors to Islamist websites discussing the
report of his demise.
The French regional daily L'Est Republicain quoted
France's DGSE foreign intelligence agency as saying the Saudi
secret services were convinced the al-Qaida leader had died of
typhoid in Pakistan in late August.
But France, the United States and Britain all said they were
unable to confirm the death of bin Laden, who in previous tapes
over the past five years has boasted of how he ordered the
September 11 attacks on the United States that killed nearly 3,000
people.
"This information is in no way whatsoever confirmed," French
President Jacques Chirac said. "I have no comment."
"No comment, no knowledge," said US Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice when asked about the French article by reporters
in New York.
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Tasnim Aslam, called the
information "speculative."
Bin Laden's most recent audiotapes were issued in July, but the
al-Qaida leader, believed to suffer from a serious kidney ailment,
has not recorded any new video message since the eve of the US
presidential election in late 2004.
That long absence from view contrasting with frequent,
high-quality video broadcasts from his deputy Ayman al-Zawahri has
heightened speculation he is either too ill to appear, or too
tightly confined to a secret hiding place.
A new tape would give Western intelligence significant clues to
bin Laden's physical state. And the logistical chain involved in
producing and delivering it to a broadcaster such as Al-Jazeera
could also be vulnerable to investigation.
But the other, perhaps more likely, explanation behind the
French leak is that this is just the latest of many speculative and
poorly sourced scraps of intelligence on bin Laden, the world's
most famous fugitive.
The latest account said he had died from typhoid; others have
had him expiring from a lung disease or killed by bombing. Despite
a statement last year from then-CIA boss Porter Goss that he had an
"excellent" idea of bin Laden's whereabouts, the trail appears to
be cold.
(China Daily September 25, 2006)
