The decisions by Pakistan and India to expel each other's
diplomats undermined a thaw in their relations, but were unlikely
to derail the nuclear-armed rivals' two-and a-half-year-old peace
dialogue, analysts said Sunday, a day after the tit-for-tat
action.
Pakistan on Saturday expelled an Indian diplomat, accusing him
of taking part in "undesirable activities" a euphemism for spying,
and hours later India retaliated by ordering out a Pakistani
diplomat on similar charges.
The two countries have often expelled each other's diplomats
over spying allegations. But Saturday's expulsions the first since
the two countries agreed in January 2004 to resume a dialogue aimed
at ending their decades-old hostilities heightened fears that the
peace process could be reversed.
Indian Foreign Ministry said the move would "undermine the
bilateral relations between the two countries."
An Islamabad-based analyst warned that the expulsions would harm
the peace process and revive hostility between Pakistan and India
unless their leaders immediately spoke to each other.
"The political climate between the two countries will be further
vitiated as it is coming on the heels of the Mumbai incident," said
Talat Masood, a former Pakistan army general.
Tensions have eased since January 2004, but were ramped up again
after last month's bombings on Mumbai's rail commuter network that
killed 207 people.
Masood said the expulsions are eroding the trust that had been
built by the peace process.
But G. Parthasarathy, a former Indian ambassador to Pakistan,
said the expulsions were unlikely to upset momentum.
"It will muddy the water," Parthasarathy said. "It won't stall
the (peace) talks."
Others agreed.
"I believe there is resilience in the composite dialogue process
and the substance that has been added to it over the past two and
half years," said C. Uday Bhaskar, a New Delhi-based strategic
affairs expert. "I don't believe this is a permanent setback," he
said.
India and Pakistan have fought three wars since the partition of
the subcontinent in 1947 after independence from Britain.
India said the Mumbai rail attackers had received support from
across the border in Pakistan and postponed a round of peace talks.
Pakistan denied it had aided the attackers.
The last diplomatic expulsions were ordered in 2003.
On Saturday, Pakistan ordered Deepak Kaul, an Indian visa
official in Islamabad, to leave the country after he was "caught
red-handed," with what a Pakistani official described as "sensitive
documents." India responded hours later, expelling Mohammed
Rafique, a political counselor at Pakistan's Embassy in New
Delhi.
India also alleged that Kaul was handcuffed, blindfolded and
taken to an undisclosed location where he was kept for about 5
hours, before he was handed over to Indian diplomats. Pakistan did
not comment on the Indian allegations.
(China Daily August 7, 2006)
