The death of Iraq's al-Qaida leader will not bring more security
to the vital oil sector in the country, where political instability
and violence will continue to hamper exports and investment,
analysts said.
Oil prices fell more than a dollar after Iraq announced Thursday
that al-Zarqawi had been killed.
Iraq's failure to return oil exports to pre-war levels, due to
violence and mismanagement, has fuelled crude's price rally.
"The end of Zarqawi will not be the end of threats to oil
exports in Iraq," said Mustafa Alani, an Iraqi expert at the Gulf
Research Council in Dubai. "Yes, al-Qaida attacked oil
installations but they were not the only actors and they were not
the main actors," he said. "There is also a new factor political
parties that are using threats against oil to gain leverage."
Insurgents in Iraq have waged a bloody campaign against US-led
forces and the Iraqi Government, repeatedly sabotaging oil
infrastructure in the north to hamper efforts to boost crude oil
exports, the main source of government revenue.
Iraq, which sits on the world's third largest oil reserves, has
been struggling to produce 2 million barrels per day (bpd), down
from nearly 3 million before the US-led invasion in 2003. Its
exports in May were around 1.5 million bpd, according to shipping
sources.
But Iraqi oil officials say they cannot increase output alone,
and most foreign companies are holding back from investing until
security improves and there is a proper legal framework. One Iraqi
oil official voiced hope that Zarqawi's death and the formation of
a permanent government would boost stability.
Some analysts cautioned against exaggerating the effect that
Zarqawi's death would have on security in the country, which has
been plagued by guerrilla and sectarian violence.
"There is total chaos and I don't think Zarqawi's death will
change anything. It is more complicated than that," said Saadallah
al-Fathi, a former senior Iraqi oil official.
"Tomorrow there will be another person (to take his place), or
another group trying to push a certain agenda," he added.
(China Daily June 9, 2006)
