By Eric Teo Chu Cheow
President Hu Jintao's United States tour was a landmark visit,
with pomp and ceremonies on the White House lawn. Hu had in fact
visited Washington earlier when he was vice-president, but this was
his inaugural visit as China's top leader.
In fact, Hu was originally supposed to have visited Washington
D.C. last October, but called off the visit because of the
calamities caused by Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans and the
American South. This visit came after that of US President George
W. Bush to Beijing last November, when he also visited Kyoto, Busan
(for the APEC leaders' meeting) and Ulan Bator in Mongolia.
In Southeast Asia, ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian
Nations) countries have been watching this visit and its symbolism
with profound interest for one fundamental reason: Southeast Asian
countries are seeking regional stability in order to build their
economies and stabilize their societies as they globalize
further.
A good US-China entente at the Washington summit, like during
the Beijing summit late last year, could inaugurate a further
period of stability in international and regional affairs, despite
the existing bilateral issues and irritants between Beijing and
Washington, ranging from trade and finance to intellectual property
rights (IPR). It is therefore the bigger strategic picture that is
crucial to the smaller Asian countries.
The United States and China are believed to be the world's most
important and key "stakeholders" in international affairs, ranging
from Iran and the Korean peninsula to the Middle East and Africa.
Bush would certainly have discussed these issues with Hu and asked
for the latter's commitment to help maintain international
stability, as China develops further. Hu would certainly have
reiterated China's "peaceful development," as it emerges as a
regional and world power.
This entente is thus essential to maintaining regional and
international peace and stability in a world that is coming to
grips with globalization, economic uncertainties, international
terrorism, religious violence and social strife. Beijing and
Washington have a moral obligation to help keep the world stable
and peaceful, and their relationship could thus be deemed the most
important and critical in world politics and economics today.
As primary international "stakeholders," the United States and
China must engage in a sound dialogue on all major world issues we
are confronted with, and the White House summit was thus perceived
by ASEAN countries as the best opportunity for China and the United
States to reach a mutual understanding on their respective
perceptions of the world and the numerous "common" international
issues.
ASEAN countries, which are already discussing intensely a Free
Trade Area (FTA) with China, also known as the "10+1" agreement,
had hoped that a greater Sino-US understanding would prevent any
competition or rivalry between the two powers in Southeast Asia,
which would have inconvenienced them. It is in this same vein that
ASEAN countries have already watched with trepidation the brewing
Sino-Japanese feud that has engulfed the two Asian giants. ASEAN
countries would hope never to have to choose between two powers or
two rivals as big powers usually have the tendency to seek the
loyalties of smaller countries in their own tussles; choosing camps
and sides usually puts smaller nations at full risk.
Moreover, the Western media have systematically portrayed
China's development as a "threat" and as a bitter rivalry with, and
challenge to, the United States in ASEAN. China has, on the other
hand, been assuring its smaller ASEAN neighbors of its "peaceful
development" and "harmonious world" concept. The "10+1" has in fact
been reiterated by Beijing as proof of its benevolence and benign
attitude towards ASEAN, as plans are under way to prepare for the
third ASEAN-China Exposition this coming October in Nanning of the
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region.
But the United States is facing challenges from some ASEAN
countries as it pursues its global policy (like in Iraq, the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran or the Middle East), which
Muslim countries in the region may not entirely agree with. Therein
lies the fundamental challenge to both China and the United States
in Southeast Asia.
But more importantly, ASEAN seeks regional stability for its own
economic and social development, as it has always professed that it
is committed to attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) to kick
off fast economic development. Overall instability in the region
would definitely be a big blow to economic growth and FDI influx
into ASEAN economies.
ASEAN countries need trade to keep their economies humming and
robust (as outward-looking economies), as they actively embrace
globalization. The 1997 financial crisis was in fact more than just
a financial one, as it became an economic, social and then
political crisis as well; in a way, the major ASEAN countries have
all experienced a "total crisis," when trade almost collapsed for
the regional entity.
ASEAN societies need fast economic growth (through trade and
FDI) to help muster social re-distribution across all echelons of
their societies, as they "transit" into more matured economies and
societies. Following the Chinese thesis, social stability is
necessary to accompany reforms, otherwise social uncertainties and
political chaos could emerge and compromise prescribed reforms.
A sound Sino-US entente and understanding is psychologically
critical to stabilizing the whole East Asian region as a region of
peace and stability, especially as East Asia attempts to build a
regional community. Washington's role in the region is not
challenged by Beijing, as assured repeatedly by China to the
Americans and the regional countries. Washington could even help
East Asia's community-building, even though it did not participate
in the Kuala Lumpur East Asia Summit last December.
Southeast Asians have thus hoped ardently for a good entente
between presidents Hu and Bush in Washington in order to stabilize
Southeast and East Asia, so that economic and social stability can
contribute towards regionalism in the region; the United States and
China, as the world's powers and "responsible stakeholders," could
thus stabilize the Asia-Pacific region for peaceful development and
the continuous "emergence" of ASEAN.
The author is a council member of the Singapore Institute
for International Affairs.
(China Daily April 21, 2006)
