Re-election of President Alexander Lukashenko in the March 19
Belorussian presidential election, and the success of the
opposition Party of Regions in becoming the largest vote-getter in
Ukraine's March 26 parliamentary elections, are noteworthy
political developments in the region.
The two election results once again demonstrate that the "color
revolution," which at one point swept into some Commonwealth of
Independent States (CIS) members, is now fading in light of
setbacks in Uzbekistan, Azerbaijian and Kazakhstan.
Together with Russia, Belarus and Ukraine are both Slavic
nations that co-initiated the establishment of the Soviet Union in
the wake of the October Revolution in 1917. Also, they were both
designers of the CIS, a relatively loose union of nations based on
sovereign equality following the collapse of the Soviet Union in
1991.
In the past decade, Russia, Ukraine and Belarus have taken along
different political and economic development paths.
It has become one of the US strategic priorities to realize a
change in the political system of Ukraine and Belarus towards more
Western styles in order to further squeeze Russia.
There are several factors underlying Lukashenko's successful
sweep for a third term as Belorussian president.
Well known for having a strong character and being resolute in
action, Lukashenko has seldom succumbed to outside pressure. He
always insists on a development path with Belorussian
characteristics.
In the eyes of the United States and other Western countries, he
is the "last dictator" in Europe.
However, after 12 years of struggling with the West, Lukashenko
has laid for himself a solid foundation among the people.
It is known that the "color revolution" started in November 2003
successively resulted in regime change in Georgia, Ukraine and
Kyrgyzstan.
However, the political windstorm has not brought the expected
economic prosperity and social harmony to these nations. Instead,
it has plunged them into new power struggles and economic
recession.
However, different from Ukraine, Belarus has kept a nearly 10
percent economic growth and lower-than-2 percent unemployment rate.
Thus, people's living conditions have continuously improved. In
particular, a series of people-oriented measures by the government,
such as free medical services and education, have benefited the
masses in a tangible manner.
This contributed a lot to Lukashenko's winning of 82.6 percent
of the votes in the presidential elections, despite facing internal
and external pressures.
The support from Russia served as another important factor in
Lukashenko's re-election.
Following the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia lost
East European and Baltic countries as its protective shield in the
west.
At the same time, the "color revolution" made another dent in
its strategic front.
To help its "strategic buffer zone" remain stable, Russia has
extended plenty of support to its ex-Soviet ally. Belarus is now
the only country that can enjoy the preferential US$47 per thousand
cubic meter gas price provided by Russia.
The European Union (EU) and the US Government are now plotting
more sanction measures against Belarus.
To help its ally fend off challenges from outside, Russia fully
affirmed the "legitimacy and fairness" of the presidential election
in Belarus.
A supervisory delegation dispatched by CIS members also
condemned the West's attempt to interfere with the country's
presidential elections and asserted that the election results are
indisputably legitimate.
Lukashenko also rebutted the accusations from Western nations,
saying the election was for the Belorussians and had proceeded in
line with the country's laws.
All these internal and external factors determine that the
international struggles involving Belarus will continue to be
fierce.
The result of Ukraine's parliamentary election also demonstrated
that the "color revolution" is now losing momentum.
As the first parliamentary election signaling Ukrainian
transition from the presidential system to parliamentarism, the
political party or party coalition which won more than half of the
450-member parliament seats forms the Cabinet, including appointing
the prime minister and most of the cabinet ministers.
According to the released information, five parties and blocs
have secured seats in the parliament, which set a 3 percent barrier
for entry, with the Party of Regions winning 180 seats, Yulia
Tymoshenko's bloc 130 seats, pro-Viktor Yushchenko Our Ukraine bloc
85 seats, the Socialist Party 34 seats and the Communist Party 21
seats.
What people care about is why the Our Ukraine bloc, led by the
incumbent prime minister Yuri Yekhanurov and in favor of
Yushchenko, suffered such a big defeat, and how the coalition
government will be formed. Also, how the pro-Russia Party of
Regions, as the largest seat holder, will act is another
concern.
The election results reflect the numerous problems involving
politics, economy, religion and culture between eastern and western
regions.
On March 28, President Yushchenko held talks with heads of the
parties about the organization of a coalition majority in the
parliament.
The three Orange Revolution factions expressed willingness for
alliances. But Tymoshenko insisted that she should act as the prime
minister while the Our Ukraine bloc argued the candidate should
come from its party.
If no agreement can be reached on the prime minister candidate,
the possibility cannot be ruled out that the Our Ukraine bloc will
build a coalition government with the Party of Regions.
Facing strong opposition parties, it is still expected that the
Orange Revolution factions will encounter many difficulties even if
an alliance is forged among them.
Differing on many issues, there is a big risk of another
disintegration if the different political factions cannot
co-ordinate relations with each other.
Lessons can be drawn from both elections.
Every country is entitled to the right to choose a development
road in accordance with its national conditions. No person or
nation can monopolize the definition of democracy.
For ex-Soviet members, developing relations with Russia should
conform with its national interests.
Ukraine and Belarus are closely related with Russia in
geo-politics and geo-economics. Developing relations with the
country on the basis of independence and self-reliance is
beneficial to both.
Economic globalization also calls for their development of
relations with the EU.
A revolution is the result of accumulated internal
contradictions. The so-called "color revolution" will fade if it
only brings regime change, and not development of economy and
living standards.
The author is a senior research fellow of the Research Center of
Contemporary World.
(China Daily April 3, 2006)
