Three years have passed since US troops entered Baghdad and
toppled the regime of Saddam Hussein. But violence, death and
bloody clashes are still raging across the country today, making
the idea of a "democratic and free Iraq" a pipe dream for most
Iraqis.
Where is Iraq going? This is the question haunting not only the
Iraqis, but also people the world over.
Iraq has been struggling in the mire of political chaos ever
since the tanks rolled in, despite going through every step of the
political reconstruction prescribed by the United States.
The interim Governing Council was set up in July 2003, followed
by the establishment of the interim government in June 2004 and the
National Assembly in January 2005 in quick succession. The
referendum on the constitution was held in October 2005 and then
the election of the formal parliament in December of the same
year.
But no consensus has yet been reached by various political
parties and factions over the organization of a new formal
government. The political reconstruction agenda is at a
standstill.
In the mean time, people's livelihoods are going from bad to
worse. According to statistics released by the Iraqi Labor and
Social Security Ministry, the intensity of poverty of the country
has increased by 30 percent since April 2003, with poverty-stricken
people making up 20 per cent of the general population and the
number of the homeless hitting 2 million, surviving on less than
US$2 a day.
The growth rate of the Iraqi economy is barely 5 percent
annually, despite the favorable context of steadily rising oil
prices.
The unemployment rate is hovering at a very high level.
Worse yet, terror attacks, in the form of suicide bombs and car
bombs, rip through neighborhoods, supermarkets, police stations and
barracks. Kidnaps and assassinations erupt one after another. All
this serves to scare away foreign investors, not to speak of the
mounting security worries on the part of the locals.
To make matters worse, sectarian strife between the Sunni and
Shi'ite Muslims has escalated since the Gold Dome of the Askariyayn
Mosque in Samarra, a holy site of the Shi'ites, was devastated on
February 22.
So far, more than 200 mosques, either Sunni or Shi'ite, have
been attacked and more than 500 people killed. Large numbers of the
Shi'ites are fleeing the predominantly Sunni neighborhoods and vice
versa.
The retaliation and counter-retaliation vendetta is threatening
to enter a vicious cycle. Iraq is on the brink of civil war.
On the eve of the third anniversary of the US-led Iraqi War,
American and Iraqi troops launched a massive military campaign
against the insurgents near Baghdad, inflicting heavy casualties on
them. But nobody expects the campaign to settle the major questions
in the country once and for all.
First and foremost, a new government is struggling to
materialize, which means that anarchy will continue to rule the
nation. The lack of political leadership is chiefly explained by
the political parties' lack of sense of compromise and
responsibility in forming a national unity government.
At the negotiation table, the political parties representing
interests of various ethnic and religious groups, for example, put
forward extremely demanding requirements, which could never be met
by opponents, to extract concessions. The negotiations, therefore,
cannot proceed.
All this points to one thing: It is still extremely difficult to
organize a new formal government. Even if it were set up, in the
current scenario it could never be a powerful and efficient
national unity government, instead serving as a stage for various
political forces to maneuver for their own political gains and
undercut each other.
Feuds between different religious sects and ethnic groups
constitute another hard nut to crack.
Of the 25 million Iraqis, Arabs account for 74 percent of the
total population and Kurds 21 percent. Ninety-five per cent believe
in Islam, of whom the Shi'ites make up 55 percent and the Sunnis 22
percent.
But the Sunnis have long been in the ruling position while the
Shi'ites and Kurds remained in a disadvantaged position. Ethnic and
religious persecutions during the rule of Saddam Hussein fuelled
the contradictions, planting the seed for conflicts today.
When Saddam's regime was overthrown, the status of Shi'ites and
Kurds was greatly elevated and they later rose to the No 1 and No 2
players in Iraq's political arena, which suddenly disrupted the
traditional power balance. The Sunnis, suffering a strong sense of
loss, started armed resistance.
They first targeted the US troops, believing that it was the
United States that had made their situation worsen. But with the
progress of Iraqi democratization, the contradictions between the
Iraqis themselves intensified. This has eventually led to the open
sectarian struggles.
If the US troops and the Iraqi Government fail to effectively
hold the sectarian clashes in check, Iraq could end up divided. A
Kurdish leader recently said that the Kurds would seek de-linking
from Iraq if civil war breaks out between the Sunnis and
Shi'ites.
The Sunnis and Shi'ites are disengaging from each other and
people from both groups are increasingly avoiding intermarriage,
new worrisome phenomena.
Taking all this into account, it can be stated that Iraq is at a
critical crossroads.
Mounting anti-US sentiments compound the deteriorating situation
and help make terror organizations such as al-Qaida feel pretty
comfortable operating in Iraq.
The al-Qaida cells in Iraq take full advantage of this and try
to create more troubles for the US troops, carrying out multiple
roadside-bomb attacks, abducting foreign nationals and so on.
They are also trying to play the Sunnis and Shi'ites up against
each other by masterminding a series of incidents.
Now the terrorists and the ordinary Iraqis are intermingled, the
efficiency of the US and Iraqi troops' military campaigns is very
much reduced, which may also help largely explain the difficulties
redressing the worsening security situation in Iraq.
The United States has been trying to bring about a pro-US
democratic government, at the cost of 2,300 young American lives
and US$250 billion.
But the United States has fallen far short of its goal. It feels
increasingly difficult piloting Iraqi politics, with political
reconstruction unfolding. Many of the US proposals are, for
instance, being turned down by Iraqis, because they don't want
interference in internal affairs.
The author is a researcher with the China Institute of
Contemporary International relations.
(China Daily March 24, 2006)
