By Feng Zhaokui
Problems in the Sino-Japanese relationship can be attributed to
a number of factors in the global geo-political arena.
First, the strategic need to cope with the "Soviet threat,"
which was shared by Japan, the United States and China, no longer
existed after the Soviet Union's disintegration and the collapse of
the Soviet-US confrontational bi-polar framework in the early
1990s. It was this shared strategic interest that served to cement
the political relations between China and Japan since the two
countries' rapprochement in 1972, among other things.
On the other hand, the end of the Cold War brought changes to
the Japanese political landscape. The "1955 mechanism," which had
balanced conservative and liberal political forces for 38 years,
collapsed in 1993. As a result, Japan's domestic politics and
social mentality made a sharp conservative turn, which, in turn,
robbed Japanese diplomacy of balancing mechanisms.
The United States, tolerating no challenge to its supremacy, was
much haunted by the "Japan threat" in the late 1980s and early
1990s. But, with the Chinese economy growing rapidly, the "China
threat" theory began to replace the "Japan threat."
In this scenario, the United States, often feeling overstretched
in the face of complex world strategic situations, tries to use the
economic and military resources of its allies. In the Asia-Pacific
region, Japan, enjoying strong economic strength and an
advantageous geographic position, becomes, therefore, increasingly
important to the United States.
The United States, in order to make Japan share more in the US
global strategy, deliberately galvanizes the latter's political and
military ambitions. This undoubtedly appeals deeply to Japan, which
is more than eager to become a "political big power." Hence, the
US-Japanese alliance is moving towards military integration and its
strategic goals tend to be of a global scope.
In the face of China's development, Japan doesn't like to see a
powerful rival by its side, whose population and territories are
far larger than its own. Worries about China becoming powerful have
become an important factor making the US-Japanese alliance ever
closer.
Japan, geographically closer to China than the United States, is
more sensitive to China's fast development. At the same time,
Japanese politicians on the right are trumpeting up the "China
threat" in the hope of whipping up nationalist feelings among
Japanese citizens who are noted for their sense of crisis. In doing
so, this group of Japanese politicians also hopes to win support
from more Japanese for the revision of Japan's current peace
constitution, and for the country adopting hawkish foreign
policies.
To make matters worse, issues left over by history alternate
with the Japanese Government's current policies, leading to icy
political ties between Japan and China. Japanese Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi's repeated visits to the Yasukuni Shrine have led
to Japan's face-off with China.
The United States harbors complex feelings towards the
deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations. It is worried about a
rising China and all the more so a rising China and an economically
rising Japan getting closer to each other.
The best way to maintain US leadership in the Asia-Pacific
region is to allow China and Japan to get at each other.
However, in the eyes of the United States, it does not follow
that the worse Sino-Japanese relations become, the more benefits
the United States will reap. A bottom line is drawn: Worsening of
Sino-Japanese ties should stop short of harming US interests.
Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger once said that the
United States should see that US-Japan relations and US-China ties
are better than China-Japan relations so that the United States is
placed in the optimum strategic position. But at the same time, the
United States should make sure that China-Japan relations are not
bad enough to get out of control, which would force the United
States to make a very difficult decision.
This mentality finds expression in the United States paying lip
service to supporting Japan's UN Security Council membership bid
and in its, together with China, opposition to voting on the UN
Security Council reform bill, which failed to win consensus from
all parties involved.
Because the Koizumi government attaches exclusive importance to
its US diplomacy and adopts stiff and hard-stance foreign policies
towards Japan's neighbors, the relations between Japan and China
have entered the worst period since the normalization of diplomatic
ties in 1972. Koizumi's insistence on visiting the Yasukuni Shrine,
in particular, has led to the unprecedented worsening of the
political ties between the two countries. It has become impossible
for the two sides to co-operate on undertakings that should involve
co-operation, and there has been friction on issues where friction
should have been avoided.
Sino-Japanese relations are now at a crossroads. The Japanese
authorities should realize that a way out should be found because
allowing the continued sliding of Japan-China relations would only
end up harming the development and stability of the two countries,
or even the whole East Asian region.
It should be seen that the two countries have many common
interests. Co-operation in the fields of trade, business and
environmental protection, for example, has brought tremendous
benefits to the two peoples. So, the win-win situation the two
countries have enjoyed since the rapprochement in 1972 should not
be allowed to slide into one in which there is no winner.
The author is a researcher with the Chinese Academy of
Social Sciences.
(China Daily February 24, 2006)
