By Li Guofu
After numerous twists and turns Iran's nuclear program is once
again taking center stage in the global political arena.
Since Iran resumed operations at its uranium conversion plant in
Isfahan in August last year, relations between Iran and the
European Union have suffered major setbacks, with both sides trying
to find a diplomatic solution.
Strained relations started to improve at the end of the year
when the two sides agreed to hold preliminary meetings on breaking
the deadlock.
But Iran, shrugging off repeated warnings from the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), removed United Nations seals on its
nuclear facilities on January 10, ready to resume enriching
uranium.
The United States and the EU have long accused Iran of engaging
in a nuclear weapons program and not using technology purely for
peaceful purposes.
As material acquired through enriching uranium can be used both
for peaceful purposes and for nuclear weapons, they argue, the only
way to "guarantee" Iran cannot produce nuclear weapons is to ban
Teheran from engaging in any uranium enrichment.
Representatives of Britain, France and Germany that are
negotiating for a diplomatic solution have maintained that the
resumption of enrichment demonstrates Iran's lack of sincerity. The
European nations and the United States insisted the matter be
reported to the United Nations Security Council and favour imposing
sanctions.
The United States' stance has hardened. Although Washington has
reiterated time and again that the stand-off should be resolved
through diplomatic channels, high-ranking government officials are
talking about the possibility of using force to destroy Iran's
nuclear facilities.
Britain, France, China, Russia, the United States the permanent
members of the Security Council and Germany held negotiations in
Britain in the middle and at the end of January. They agreed during
the second round of talks that the matter should be reported to the
UN Security Council.
Hot on the heels of the six-party talks, the IAEA's Special
Board of Governors passed a draft resolution at its meeting on
February 4 to report Teheran to the UN Security Council. China
voted for the resolution.
The IAEA, in line with the resolution, will report the nuclear
program deadlock to the UN Security Council and keep the body
updated, but not submit it to the council. The key to resolving the
matter is still in the hands of the IAEA.
China's support is consistent with its long-standing position on
the Iranian nuclear program. Beijing has consistently pressed for
the settlement of the question through negotiations.
The "yes" vote from China at the IAEA Special Board of Governors
meeting was granted because delegates believe the passage of the
draft resolution will facilitate the breaking of the deadlock and
will ease tension.
Ambassador Wu Hailong, China's representative to the UN
organizations in Vienna, said all parties concerned should leave no
stones unturned in the search for a diplomatic solution even though
negotiations have run into difficulties.
As a result, China appeals to all sides to remain calm and
exercise self-restraint in order to avoid action that would make
matters worse.
China also urges that all parties act as astute judges of the
situation and demonstrate as much flexibility as possible so the
matter can be properly resolved through negotiations.
Beijing will continue to play its unique role in resolving the
nuclear deadlock.
Iran has strongly opposed the IAEA resolution, claiming the
Western countries, with ulterior political motives, are trying to
rob Iran of its legitimate rights.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ordered an end to
voluntary co-operation with the IAEA, the resumption of nuclear
activities and a halt to implementing the Additional Protocol of
the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
The Iranian presidential order makes it clear Iran will no
longer allow inspections of its nuclear facilities to be conducted
by international personnel.
The tough stance of the Iranian Government has made the US and
EU more determined to submit Iran's nuclear bid to the UN Security
Council.
Mohammed ElBaradei, director-general of the IAEA, is expected to
submit an evaluation report to the IAEA Board of Governors on March
6, giving his assessment of Teheran's nuclear program.
The report will have a great influence on whether the matter is
submitted to the UN Security Council or not.
Although the conclusions of the director-general's report are
not yet known, ElBaradei has expressed grave concern about the
direction in which the nuclear deadlock is going.
He made it clear that the IAEA is unable to verify the peaceful
nature of Iran's nuclear activities despite three years of thorough
investigations conducted by his agency.
The three weeks between now and March 6, when the IAEA Board of
Governors meetings will be convened, are vitally important.
We are at a crucial crossroads. It is generally believed that if
Iran does not budge, it is likely the Security Council will step
in.
Once the IAEA decides to submit the matter to the UN Security
Council, it is possible sanctions against Iran may be
introduced.
The situation could escalate bringing consequences no one wants
to see.
Strong measures against Iran, including sanctions, would
inevitably harm the interests of all parties involved. Taking this
into account, the possibility of a positive solution should not be
ruled out.
The author is a senior research fellow and director of the
Center for Middle East Studies under the China Institute of
International Studies.
(China Daily February 16, 2006)
