By Zhang Tuosheng
In recent years, the two big powers of East Asia China and Japan
have been locked in a stalemate, with political and security
friction escalating and sometimes spilling outside bilateral
relations. Under these circumstances, mutual suspicion of
strategies has intensified. Certain Japanese politicians have
openly trumpeted the "China threat" while China worries about
Japan's deviation from its post-war policy of peaceful growth.
Media reports from both countries even propagate the theory that "a
war is inevitable." Where does the relationship stand and where
will it go? These are the challenges that will confront China in
its peaceful development.
What part do Sino-Japanese relations play in China's peaceful
development? How will the two impact each other? What actions are
in the common interests of the two nations? Here are my opinions on
these important matters:
First, a positive Sino-Japanese relationship is essential to
China's peaceful development.
To grow peacefully, China needs wide support and understanding
from the international community, including both developing
countries and developed countries, small and medium-sized countries
as well as regional and world powers. Japan, as the world's number
two economy and a regional power with colossal influence, occupies
a special position.
In fact, the success of China's series of foreign policies, such
as commitment to building a world of "harmony and mutual benefit,"
developing positive big power relations, working for a sound
environment with neighboring countries, and adopting policies of
"friendliness with neighbors" in an effort for collaborative
development, depends largely on relations with Japan.
But it is by no means easy to build long-term relations of
friendliness and collaboration in the 21st century. The two nations
have different social systems and ideologies; there are serious
disputes over territorial and oceanic claims; Japan has
historically inflicted damage on China and animosity still lingers;
competition has increased as the two have manifested similar
strengths. These factors will add more difficulties to the handling
of bilateral relations.
But despite the challenges, we must move forward and improve
Sino-Japanese relations. A good relationship between the two
nations is essential to the peaceful growth of China. It is a
historic test of the intelligence and insight of the Chinese
nation.
A former senior official of the US government and an expert in
Chinese affairs once said that if China could handle its relations
with Japan in the process of its own rise, the US would have more
confidence in China's peaceful growth. I agree with his assessment
to a certain extent.
In the long run, the healthy development of Sino-Japanese
relations will provide a stimulant to China's peaceful development;
it will also be a positive demonstration for China's relations with
Western powers and a rebuttal of the "China threat" assertion.
There are both challenges and opportunities tied to the
Sino-Japanese relationship, which we must face head-on.
Second, a relationship that is friendly, neighborly and
cooperative in the long run is in the best interests of both
nations.
When China and Japan restored diplomatic relations in the 1970s,
leaders of both nations came to the conclusion that "the two would
both benefit when there is peace and suffer when there is war."
Since then, bilateral relations have undergone fundamental changes,
as has the international environment. But the historic conclusion
has not changed; rather, it has increased in significance with the
end of the Cold War and the world becoming multi-polar and on a
fast track toward globalization.
Geopolitically, the two are big neighboring powers;
economically, they are trading partners that complement each other;
on the stage of the rise of East Asia or Asia in general, the two
play the principal roles; on the trilateral relations of China, the
US and Japan, the Sino-Japanese relationship is a major variable;
on peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits, the two nations
have overlapping interests and divergences; on keeping sea lanes
safe and coping with non-traditional security threats of ever
increasing severity, the two share common interests that grow
larger by the day.
With so much at stake, the two nations would have an unthinkable
future if they were entangled in long-term conflict or even head-on
confrontation. This is something that perceptive politicians and
the public from both nations would hate to see. The only reasonable
option is to develop a friendly and cooperative relationship.
Third, it takes joint efforts from both sides to improve
relations.
As it stands, the Sino-Japanese relationship is at an impasse,
but we should not be pessimistic about it. Recently, Chinese
leaders reiterated, during their meetings with Japanese guests,
that China has not changed, and will not change, its policy of
keeping its relations with Japan on a long-term neighborly and
cooperative basis.
In Japan, difficulties in bilateral relations have also caused
concern among the discerning public. Some parliamentary members
have expressed their hope, in television interviews, that relations
will improve, and they have made various proposals. Japanese
leaders have pointed out on many occasions that Japan still sees
its relationship with China as one of the most important, in terms
of its foreign policy.
In light of the background, what can be done for both sides to
push for amelioration? Three areas have caught my attention:
First of all, we should make stabilizing bilateral relations to
prevent them from further deteriorating a top priority. Both sides
should take forceful measures to stop the transformation from "cold
politics versus hot economy" to "cold economy coupled with cold
politics;" they should prevent military accidents in the East China
Sea and prevent future incidents of confrontation; they should keep
official contact and dialogue open and push for another channel for
dialogue, especially people-to-people exchanges, which will be a
guarantee of stability.
Second, when relations are stabilized, the impasse on the
Yasukuni Shrine should be broken so that high-level contact can be
resumed. As "it takes the one who tied the knot to untie it,"
Japanese leaders should proceed from the fundamental interests of
their nation and make the right decision. The resumption of
high-level contact will be a landmark in restoring bilateral
relations to normalcy.
Third, when relations are back to normal, both sides should
manage and ease tension on the Taiwan question as well as the
historic issue, disputes over territorial and oceanic rights, and
work out a plan on the joint development of the East China Sea. At
the same time, both should carry out dialogues to dispel strategic
suspicion, thereby launching the process of mutual strategic
trust.
Looking into the future, as long as both nations keep to the
road of peaceful development and abide by the political framework
built since 1972, place common interests high on the agenda and
share common ground while accommodating differences, we can
anticipate the day when difficulties are resolved and healthy
relations restored.
The author is director of the Research Society of China
International Strategy.
(China Daily January 25, 2006)
