From Americans' perspective, Sino-US trade surplus in 2005 was
even bigger than China's total trade surplus, which means that
China's trade to all the other countries seemed to be in
deficit.
According to recent customs statistics, China's foreign trade in
2005 reached US$1.42 trillion, 23.2 percent higher than 2004,
including US$762 billion in export and US$660 billion in
import.
However, American statistics show that China's total trade
surplus was nearly US$101.9 billion in 2005 whereas Sino-US trade
surplus was US$114.7 billion, 43 percent more than that in
2004.
Thus it looks like that China only has trade surplus with
America but not with other countries. How can Americans be happy
about it?
And their unhappiness doesn't limit to these figures. It has
three other reasons. Firstly, in Americans' view, China somewhat
didn't present an "honest and full" picture of its foreign trade
situation. The American side had estimated that China's trade
surplus with America would exceed US$200 billion in 2005.
In 2004, China's statistics showed US$80 billion of trade
surplus with the US while the US said it was US$162 billion. This
was actually due to technical reasons since China and the US used
different methods to conduct the calculation. But Americans think
China had psychologically wanted to play down the issue with
underestimated figures. Any way, the surplus would bring more
benefit to China. Americans think China's underestimation means it
wants to keep the situation for a long time and benefit from
it.
Secondly, in Americans' view, China's fast trade development
reflects the fast rising of China, which has brought some threat to
the dominant position of the American economy. An article in the
New York Times predicts the change in trade figures
indicates a potential change in China's role in the world economy.
"The giant oriental dragon will not only bring significant
influence to the American economy, but also has some indirect
control over Wall Street financial price and international foreign
exchange trend." In fact, trade surplus is very important for China
who has greatly depended on foreign trade as the increasing demand
abroad has constituted a power house for China's fast economic
growth. The US holds that China will surpass France, Italy and even
the UK to become the fourth or the fifth economic power in the
world in 2005 in its overall strength. China's revision of its GDP
recently made Americans suspect China's growth rate may have
reached 10 percent, and China's trade surplus expansion even made
Americans have more worries about China's fast-growing economic
strength.
Thirdly, in Americans' view, China's expanded trade surplus has
potential threat to US economic recovery. Sino-US trade surplus has
far-reaching significance for the American economy. The direct
influence is that the surplus has brought pressure to relevant
industries in America and almost got rid of its export advantage
taht is helpful for its economic recovery. At the beginning of the
US economic recovery, many unstable factors including energy
crisis, terrorism and inflation have shown up from time to time,
domestic demand has shifted to overseas and lack of driving force
for economic growth has brought great risks to the prosperity of
new economic era. The indirect influence is that China's trade
surplus has helped increase the absolute quantity of US trade
deficit. In 2004, trade deficit in the US was US$617 billion, and
in 2005, the number will be even bigger.
As a result, the trade deficit and fiscal deficit will become
the biggest potential problem for the American economy. To solve
such an old difficulty, it needs America to pay economic sacrifice
and tolerate the loss of the strong green cash. These are not what
the US likes to see. That is why more and more Americans yelling:
"It's China who has moved our cheese."
(People's Daily January 24, 2006)
