Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's era is believed to have
come to an end, though his doctor has said he stands a good chance
of surviving.
The world has been watching the unfolding drama intensely.
A man rarely free of controversy, Sharon is a heavy hitter to
both supporters and critics. His sudden exit from the stage is
leaving behind a vista of uncertainty in his country, Palestine and
the Middle East as a whole.
Over five decades, Sharon has etched a controversially indelible
mark on Israel's military and political landscape. He is the figure
who reshaped Israeli politics and diplomacy in the post-Oslo
period.
The most unlikely of peacemakers, he traded in his image of hawk
to one of moderate.
His power and lack of subtlety won him the epithet "the
Bulldozer." He adopted uncompromising tactics as a commander in all
the wars he fought on Israel's behalf, going back to the 1948 War
of Independence.
In the last two years he became the man of the center. Sharon
shed his reputation as the bruising and reckless builder of
settlements.
He broke away last November from Likud, the right-wing party he
helped found three decades ago.
His new Kadima party embodies a national consensus that Israel
would have to reduce its occupation of Palestinian lands in return
for a final, secure border.
It should not necessarily mean Sharon's political journey is a
linear progression from hawk to dove.
He was neither loved nor hailed as a harbinger of peace as his
predecessor Yitzhak Rabin had been a decade earlier.
His definition of what would constitute victory is unclear. The
building of Israel's controversial security barriers seemed to
point in one direction; his decision to withdraw entirely from the
Gaza Strip another. For him, extra security measures were
indispensable accompaniments to peace negotiations.
His vision of a final settlement with Palestinians was an
imposed one. His decision to remove Jewish settlements from the
Gaza Strip in August was unilateral.
This riposte left a big question mark over his basic conviction
that Jews and Arabs can live together.
Controversial though he certainly is, Sharon played no small
role.
His unexpected retreat from the political stage will mean a lot
for his country and the rest of the Middle East.
It makes the upcoming elections in Palestine and Israel
unpredictable.
On January 25, Palestinians will go to the polls to elect 132
members of the Palestinian Legislative Council. Council members
will choose a cabinet to serve with Palestinian Authority President
Mahmoud Abbas.
Before his collapse, Sharon's charisma made his Kadima Party a
favorite to win a general election scheduled for March 28.
The hope becomes dimmer with Sharon living on life support.
Being a one-man show, he has no obvious successor. Without him, the
future of Kadima is thrown into serious doubt.
Three choices are awaiting the Israelis for the election in
March.
Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party represents the rightist way:
Israel should concede land only as part of a concrete peace deal
with Palestinians.
The Labor Party, with its new leader Amir Paretz, goes the Labor
way: negotiating with the Palestinians.
The Kadima Party is the third way: For the past year Sharon
pushed forward a vision for separation. His idea to keep Israel a
Jewish state was to detach it physically, wherever possible, from
the Palestinians.
A change of leadership in Israel is imminent. It will cast into
uncertainty Israel's policy towards the Palestinians.
Whoever ultimately fills the huge chair Sharon leaves empty
should not veer from the path of peace mapped out by his
predecessors.
(China Daily January 9, 2006)
