US forces are unlikely to withdraw from Japan completely and the Japanese will probably not request such a move.
"That (withdrawal) could really shake up East Asia," the intelligence analyst said, adding such a decision could have ripple effects in other countries, such as the Republic of Korea, where US troops are also stationed in large numbers.
"The US military doesn't want to set (that kind of) precedent," he said. "That could snowball on the US in other places like Iraq or (South) Korea."
But negotiations on who pays for what could come out in Japan's favor.
"(US President Barack) Obama will likely toss them a bone," Baker said, "We may see some accommodations made for Tokyo."
Sheila A. Smith, senior fellow for Japan studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said it would take the new leadership some time to refine its objectives.
It would also be important for Tokyo to articulate the areas in which the DPJ wanted to work with Washington.
So far, it was the party's criticism of past management practices that have grabbed public attention, Smith added.
US Defense Secretary Robert Gates is making arrangements to visit Japan, possibly as soon as October.
Baker said DPJ officials would have to put on a strong face to appease constituents while re-assuring Washington that changes would not be radical.
The ruling party understood that Japan needed US forces for security and was therefore unlikely to tell US troops to pack and leave, Baker added.
For its part, the United States may appear to listen, but may not see eye-to-eye with the new leadership in Japan.
"The US goes to countries and nods and smiles and then walks away and says 'I am listening but I might not do what you say,'" the Stratfor analyst said.
The Cato fellow, Bandow, said Japan was capable of taking on its own defense responsibilities.
"Japan today has the second largest economy on earth," and there is no reason why the United States should continue to defend it, he argued.
If US forces were to remain in Japan, Bandow added, the United States would prefer being the dominant partner, although US officials had in the past urged Japan to take more responsibility for defense.
"Washington wants to make the policies and have the Japanese follow. But this new government in Tokyo may very well change that," he said.
(Xinhua News Agency September 5, 2009)
