By Dang Jianjun
The US and Russian governments have expressed their desire to improve relations between the two countries. US Secretary of State Hillary has said the US wants to "press the reset button" on US-Russia ties. But as it prepared to welcome the visit of US President Obama, Russia was simultaneously holding the biggest military exercise in Caucasus since the end of the cold war. And though both heads of state have said they want to make a new start in bilateral relations, they remain divided over a number of key issues.
Iran: a threat to US, a friend to Russia
Iran is regarded as a serious threat by the US, and the Americans expect Russia to help them prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. For Russia, on the other hand, Iran is a key strategic partner.
"Iran is a special relationship for them [the Russians]," says Eugene Rumer, a senior researcher at US's National Defense University's Institute for National Strategic Studies. "It is their entry point for Middle East politics. It's a country they don't want to upset." Equally Iran has maintained its support for Russia. For example, Iran refused to support Chechnyan insurgents in their fight against the Russians. Unlike the US, Russia does not regard Iran's nuclear program as a major threat. As a result, Russia and US have major differences on how to handle the Iran nuclear issue.
The US openly criticized the Iranian government over the turmoil following Iran's presidential election, but Russia adopted a quite different attitude. The upshot is that the US is unlikely to get any help from Russia on the Iran nuclear issue.
Ukraine and Georgia
The 2003 Rose Revolution in Georgia, the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine, and the 2008 Russia-Georgia war, all severely damaged US-Russia relations. There is little prospect that Russia and the US will reach agreement on Ukrainian and Georgian issues during Obama's visit. Furthermore, US Vice President Joseph Biden will visit Ukraine and Georgia in late July. His trip will "demonstrate to the Russians that we have equities in the region," said Coit Blacker, a Russia expert at Stanford University and a former adviser to the Clinton Administration.
Though Russia's public stance is that it does not object to the US making friends with former Soviet republics, it will not tolerate Ukraine and Georgia joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Russia views the territory of the former Soviet Union as its own "sphere of influence" with which western powers are not allowed to interfere. And Russia does not want US or its allies to build military bases in the area.
Missile defense shield in Eastern Europe
The US claims that its missile shield system in Eastern Europe is aimed at countering a potential threat from Iran. But Moscow sees it as one of a number of initiatives through which the US is seeking to gain a military advantage over Russia.
Russia is expecting the Obama administration to compromise over the missile shield issue. As Obama and Medvedev seek agreement on nuclear arms cuts, Russia is making it clear that cuts are possible only if the US drops plans to expand its missile-defense shield into Eastern Europe. Obama, on the other hand, insists that the two issues are not connected.
Obama has adopted a much less aggressive stance over the missile shield than his predecessor, George W. Bush. But despite the change of tone, he has not abandoned the missile shield plan. Russia and the US remain at odds over the issue.
Lack of mutual trust
Obama has become used to cheering crowds and friendly media coverage at home and abroad since he became president; but after years of mutual suspicion between the two countries he remains distrusted by Russians. Opinion polls show that Russians do trust neither Obama nor the US.
A poll conducted during Obama's visit to Russia showed that only 15 percent of respondents believe the US plays a positive role in world affairs; only 12 percent said the US treats Russia fairly; three fourths of Russians believed the US is abusing its power in an attempt to coerce Russia to fall in line with its policies.
Obama is a gifted orator, but it was mainly pro-Western intellectuals and businessmen, rather than Russia's political elite, who turned up to listen to him speak in Moscow. His speech was not broadcast live on Russian TV, with only some extracts included in Russian television news.
Mutual distrust has become a serious impediment to Russia-US relations. It is preventing the two countries from learning from each other and holding back the development of their bilateral ties. Pressing the reset button is only a start; 20 years of suspicion and mistrust cannot be so easily erased.
(China.org.cn translated by Zhang Ming'ai, July 14, 2009)
