Battered by the surge of US and Iraqi security forces, al-Qaida's strongholds in the war-worn country have shrunken to just a few northern cities like Mosul, and parts of Baghdad.

The US said the number of foreign fighters coming across Iraq's borders had dropped from hundreds to "tens", and the membership of al-Qaida in Iraq has plunged from thousands at its peak to hundreds now.

In the mean time, both US and Iraqi officials have warned that the number of attacks would rise as US combat troops leave urban centers this month. Analysts also expected that violence is likely to intensify in the run-up to Iraq's parliamentary elections next January.

Iraqi forces; Tutored to grow up

Washington disbanded Iraqi military soon after the 2003 invasion, a proven mistake that consequently stirred insurgency across Iraq. Over 4,300 US soldiers died directly or indirectly out of this.

Now as its military target moves to Afghanistan, Washington has to clean up its mass back in Iraq by tutoring its own army to maturity.

Yet, the premature Iraqi security forces were plagued with problems ranging from corruption to inability to lacking of equipment, despite order from the US of five-billion-dollar military equipment, most of which are still underway.

Even worse, low oil prices over the past several months have adversely affected plans to better arm, equip, and expand Iraq's armed forces. The shrinking budget discounted Baghdad's ambition to rebuild its navy and air forces.

Despite proud assertions from the government that the US pullback represents a victory for Iraq as it regains its sovereignty, many Iraqis lack faith in their own forces. Recent attacks served as a grim reminder that Iraqi security forces are not capable of securing the country.

"It is a delicate situation in Iraq when the US troops leave. The Iraqi government should have a sort of strategy, because it would really be a test for Iraqi security forces and the government. It would be a test for Iraqis' political and security abilities," Hashim Hassan, professor of information in Baghdad University told Xinhua.

"Despite the government efforts to build its troops, there are still some shortcomings and violations because the Iraqi security forces were built on sectarian quotas. Also there are corruption and unqualified commanders who are mostly backed by influential political parties," Hassan said.

A report from US Department of Defense said that Iraqi security forces would continue to rely on the US for aerial power, a weakness in the Iraqi military, as well as tactical and intelligence support.

It's all about national reconciliation

With a timetable now set for the US withdrawal from Iraq, ethnic and sectarian tensions have become a major challenge to Iraq's stability. Another hurdle stands between Sunnis and Shiites is the "Sahwa recruitment" issue.

Sahwa, in English the "awakening council", classifies a group of Iraqi Sunni militants who used to fight with al-Qaida against US invaders, but later turned their guns toward al-Qaida who started to kill indiscriminately Iraqi civilians.

Now the major demand of the Sahwa members is to join the Iraqi security forces. Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has promised that only 20 percent of them would be able to join the army and the police, and the remaining are to have civilian jobs or pensions.

However, some government officials seem to believe that al-Qaida members and former Saddam's leftovers are messed with Sahwa and intended to finally infiltrate into the government. The slow process of recruitment and continuous arrests of Sunni militant leaders aroused Sahwa's mistrust, thus further complicates the matter.

Clashes between the Shiite-led government and Sunni Sahwa members showed skepticism still exists in the reconciliation process.

Up north, tensions between semi-autonomous Kurdish people and Arabs also exist.

The Kurds seeking for independence in the northern territory of Kurdistan region have high tension with Arabs on the issue of oil rich city of Kirkuk. Power struggle could further destabilize the region and make any effort of national reconciliation in vain.

US President Barack Obama said on Friday the bigger challenge in Iraq is finding political agreement among Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds.

He said he hasn't seen the kind of "political progress" that he would like to see among Iraq's various factions. But Obama believed "there will be a further improvement in reducing violence if their disputes are resolved."

The violence would probably continue for "some time", Obama said.

Again, Iraq's Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki on Saturday called for national unity.

In the process of US troops withdrawal and the national election at sight, political struggles among Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds would well dance with waves of insurgencies. How appropriately "the knife be extracted" and how soon and well the wounds healed, largely decide the road to Iraq's ultimate peace.

(Xinhua News Agency June 29, 2009)