By David Harris
It has been a week of crucial elections for Israel and yet no Israelis have been to the polls. First there were fears the Syrian- and Iranian-backed Hezbollah would be victorious in Lebanon -- something that did not come to fruition, and on Friday Iranians are electing their new president.
The incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is hated by most Israeli Jews. This is a man, they say, who has called for Israel to wiped from the face of the map and continues to deny the Holocaust.
When Ahmadinejad spoke at the United Nations Human Rights Conference in Geneva in May, a mass walkout was staged by representatives of many Western countries as the Iranian suggested Israel, and by implication Jews, control the world's media and financial services.
However, Israeli leaders are far more interested in Ahmadinejad 's actions than his rhetoric. Upmost in their minds is Tehran's nuclear program.
Israel is convinced that Ahmadinejad is creating nuclear weapons and does not merely want to generate electricity from nuclear installations, which Israel believes exist in more than 20 locations across the country.
Iran has repeatedly denied the allegations, insisting that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only.
Yet, whomever is elected president, the truth is their power will be tremendously limited. It is said by Iran watchers that only 10 percent of absolute power is vested in the hands of the political head of state.
The remainder lies with the spiritual leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei and his immediate colleagues. Khamenei has been effectively running Iran since the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Khomeini, died while in office in 1989.
"For Israel, the elections are not so important. The differences between the candidates are not that great," said Menashe Amir, who headed Israel Radio's Persian Service for a quarter of a century.
"On the nuclear topic, the continuation of missile development, the peace process and the ongoing aid to Hamas and Hezbollah, I don't see a significant difference," Amir said.
These are other issues that matter most to Israel. Economic events in Iran and the war of words between the rival camps of Ahmadinejad and his apparent closest rival, former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi, are just interesting talking points, but little more for most Israelis.
Amir attaches a great deal of importance to the anti-Ahmadinejad protests last month. It is what he describes as "the spring of freedom".
Tens of thousands of young Iranians have taken to the streets to demonstrate their opposition to Ahmadinejad. They have openly called him a "liar" and blame him for many of Iran's economic woes.
Beyond that, Ahmadinejad's rival candidates have been adopting a new tactic in Iranian elections by campaigning for minority rights.
"Three out of the four candidates are non-Persians," said Brenda Shaffer, of the Department of Asian Studies at the University of Haifa in northern Israel, who said there have been violent events in almost all the minority regions in recent months.
There are wide-scale accusations of improper voting and counting, according to Amir and Shaffer, seemingly much of it part of a bid to ensure Ahmadinejad's re-election.
On the surface it seems as though another term for Ahmadinejad would be bad news for Iran. Give the country's isolation from the richest nations, perhaps a change of president and an end to the perceived incitement would bring Iran to the center stage in the club of nations.
It might be a case of "good cop bad cop", said Shaffer. The American media seems to think of Khamenei as "the more liberal leaning or more pragmatic," when compared to Ahmadinejad, she said.
Furthermore, if the regime really does open the door to the United States, allowing thousands of American business people into the country, "it's taking a terminal risk," Shaffer added.
No one is predicting the overthrow of the current regime. Israel and other interested parties will be in the same position as they are right now -- with the same fixed leadership continuing the same policies.
Israel, and its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, officially favor increased sanctions being imposed on Iran to pressurize it into opening its nuclear doors to full inspection by representatives of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
However, as far as Jerusalem is concerned, time is running out. Predictions of when Israel believes Iran will have the capability of creating nuclear weapons vary, but most experts say if action is to be taken on the diplomatic field, it must be done now.
While no one in Israel is talking publicly of the need for a military strike in the near future, most politicians and military strategists realize that option cannot be dismissed.
As US President Barack Obama seeks to negotiate with Iran and create warmer ties, it is becoming increasingly apparent to Israeli decision makers that any attack on Iran's nuclear facilities will most likely have to be planned and executed by Israel.
(Xinhua News Agency June 12, 2009)
