By David Harris
Being the leader of Israel is never easy. Political pressure at home, ongoing threats of attack from its rivals and the need to please the international community all add up to making it one of the toughest jobs in the political world.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who took office in late March, is finding that balancing act almost impossible.
This week, for example, one of his hawkish coalition partners, the Shas party, introduced legislation saying that if Israel releases "Palestinian terrorists" it will also have to free "Jewish terrorists".
Meanwhile, Israel's closest ally, the United States, is turning its back to Israel about settlement issue. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Israel's claim that the Bush administration promised it would allow the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank was simply untrue.
These are the types of opposing pressures Netanyahu faces every day. He is expected to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Iranian nuclear issue and possibly the chances of reopening peace talks with Syria, in a major speech Sunday, in response to US President Barack Obama's address in Cairo last Thursday,
To add to the pressure Netanyahu received a phone call from Obama on Monday, during which the American leader reportedly wanted to know what Netanyahu was thinking of putting in his address.
Israeli media is full of speculation as to the contents of Netanyahu's speech and the likely pressure being put on him by Washington both now and after his address.
Experts are divided as to what the United States can and should do.
"From the most extreme freezing of aid to immediately preventing tax-free status for US organizations that raise money and support for settlements," suggested Gershon Baskin, the joint CEO of the Israel-Palestine Center for Research and Information.
"The US protective umbrella in international fora could be used, including the withdrawal of the automatic US veto in the UN Security Council," said Baskin. The US has traditionally backed Israel in most votes in the United Nations Security Council.
Despite those possibilities, many feel the US does not have sufficient leverage over Israel nor does it want to upset Israel's applecart too early into Obama's administration.
"America is limited in what it can do and Obama knows it," maintained Galia Bar-Natan, a senior lecturer in international relations at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
Netanyahu has an agenda of his own and wants to stick to it, she said, adding that the political will of his coalition colleagues will be extremely difficult to bend.
"The Americans are fully au fait with Israeli politics," she added.
Netanyahu's agenda is understood at this stage to be pushing first towards economic cooperation with the Palestinians with a view to allowing for the creation of a demilitarized Palestinian state within temporary borders.
This type of proposal is a nonstarter as far as the Palestinians are concerned. They are banking on Obama adopting the Arab Peace Initiative.
The initiative, first proffered in 2002, calls for a full Israeli withdrawal to its 1967 borders and a solution to the Palestinian refugee problem in exchange for a full peace with the Arab world.
In turn, the Netanyahu government in the best-case scenario sees the Arab initiative as a first negotiating position but certainly not a "take it or leave it" document as it has been presented by some Arab leaders.
Netanyahu will no doubt stress several issues in his speech that fly in the face of both the Arab proposal and comments from Obama and his team.
When it comes to territorial concessions, he will likely declare Jerusalem will remain "the united capital of Israel". The Palestinians see eastern Jerusalem as the capital of any future state of their own.
On the thorny topic of settlements, Netanyahu is expected to say Israel want to retain large existing settlement blocs. He may also call for their expansion to allow for "natural growth".
If he touches on the Palestinian refugee issue, which is not likely, he will reject calls for their repatriation.
"Obama has made it very clear on several occasions, as opposed to Bush, that the US will not give Israel the 'blank check' that it wants, but I don't think the Americans want to do much more than this for the time being," said Bar-Natan.
That having been said, in Obama's Cairo speech and elsewhere since coming to power, he has been pushing an agenda different from that of his predecessor. Obama is trying to bridge the gap with the Muslim world, create close allies out the moderate Arab states and solve the Iranian nuclear issue via negotiations.
Analysts are divided on whether Obama's carrot and stick approach to Israel is merely lip service or is intended to carry actual clout.
Should Netanyahu really want to compromise and move towards the US position he could do so by changing his coalition. He could force out some of the hawkish parties with which he has teamed up and replace them with Kadima, the largest party in Israel's parliament, the Knesset.
That, however, appears unlikely, at least in the short term, leaving Netanyahu's hands very much tied by his coalition partners.
Netanyahu's address will be broadcast live in Israel and no doubt beyond and his hawkish government members will be watching for any sign that Netanyahu is not with them, and then they will begin to threaten the stability of the Netanyahu government -- and that could be the first step towards general elections and yet another change of government.
(Xinhua News Agency June 10, 2009)
