By Li Qinggong??

The Korean Peninsula, with its fragile security, is trapped in a new round of tensions and confrontation.

Two days after its announcement of the successful execution of an underground nuclear test on May 25, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) claimed that it would no longer abide by the decades-long armistice agreement with the Republic of Korea (ROK). Pyongyang attributed its move to the ROK's decision to join the US-led Proliferation Security Initiative, and said it would not guarantee the navigating safety of US and ROK naval ships and boats in the country's west maritime waters. DPRK also proclaimed the Korean Peninsula's return to a "state of war".

On May 29, Pyongyang once again warned that it would take further self-defense measures if the UN Security Council imposes sanctions to punish the DPRK for its latest nuclear maneuvers. The intense exchange of rhetoric fraught with the strong smell of gunpowder is likely to push the Korean Peninsula, which is lacking in mutual trust, to the verge of war.

Who is to blame for the ever-aggravating situation on the Korean Peninsula? Undoubtedly, it is the DPRK, as a key party to the Korean nuclear issue. However, despite Pyongyang's overreaction in deeds and words, the ROK, the US and Japan, too, have to accept some responsibility for the events leading to the present situation.

After assuming office on February 25 last year, ROK President Lee Myung-bak made an abrupt revert against the "Sunshine Policy" embraced by his predecessors Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun. A tougher approach by the new president toward the North has put a brake on any improvement in North-South relations, which is marked by a wintry chill. For the DPRK, the nuclear tests and missile launches are instruments of force for dealing with the hostile Lee Myung-bak administration.

Former US president George W. Bush emerges as the chief culprit of the nuclear crisis in the Korean Peninsula. Since October 2002, six rounds of Six-Party Talks have been brokered to defuse the nuclear crisis on the peninsula. There have been some remarkable achievements toward resolving the tensions, owing to the joint effort of the parties concerned. However, due to the Bush administration's passive attitude, the Korean Peninsula failed to take the crucial step toward denuclearization. This has caused strong resentment in Pyongyang.

Also, since it took office, the new US administration of Barack Obama has focused its energy on finding a solution to the situations in the Middle East and Iran, and not paid enough attention to the Korean Peninsula. It is possible that Pyongyang believed that fresh nuclear moves will catch the attention of the new US administration.

As a party involved in the framework of the Six-Party Talks, from the beginning, Japan seems to have been less than fully committed to a smooth settlement of the Korean nuclear issue. On the contrary, the obstacles of one kind or another created by Tokyo have caused extreme revulsion within the DPRK. It is reported that the DPRK has also fired five missiles following its latest nuclear test, and that the country is preparing for the test launch of an inter-continental missile. These developments, if confirmed, seem to be Pyongyang's warning to Tokyo that it should not resort to any offensive conduct.

Given the DPRK's pronouncement of the region's return to the state of war, at this stage it would be meaningless to be preoccupied with which of the parties is responsible for the current tensions in the Korean Peninsula and to what extent. The more important issue is: How far from war is the eventful Korean Peninsula?

Present developments indicate that a large-scale and high-intensity regional war involving multiple countries is out of the question in the near future. The US, Japan and ROK have not carried out the full-fledged mobilization, deployment and maneuvers necessary for a real war. And, the DPRK has remained at the stage of verbal threats of war. Thus, the efforts by the parties concerned and the international community to defuse the emerging crisis and ease tensions is very likely to hold the peninsula back from the brink of war.

For long, the US, Japan and the ROK have been most concerned over the DPRK's development of nuclear weapons. Therefore, the possibility of a surgical strike by the three countries - if they are convinced that the DPRK is making nuclear-capable weapons and missiles - against Pyongyang's nuclear and missile facilities cannot be ruled out. Such a strike, if it takes place, will likely provoke some reprisal -- counterattacks from the DPRK -- and that will exacerbate the already tense situation on the Korean Peninsula.

At a time of escalation in the crisis, slamfire incidents between the North and South and even between the DPRK and the US are very likely to occur, as are shown by maritime clashes years ago on contested waters. However, such armed clashes, if allowed to get out of control, can possibly trigger larger-scale conflict and even war.

It is true that latest developments show the Korean Peninsula to be edging toward a military conflict and even a war. However, there still exists the hope that any conflict or war can be prevented if leaders of the parties concerned, including the DPRK, ROK, the US and Japan, really desire peace and demonstrate the wisdom and capability of dealing with the current crisis.

The author is a researcher with the China Council for National Security Policy Studies

(China Daily June 6, 2009)