By Peng Guangqian
It has been a long-term strategy for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) to become a nuclear country. Despite all the difficulties it faces, Pyongyang seems to have been insistent on achieving a breakthrough in nuclear weapon development.
Pyongyang may see nuclear prowess as pivotal for it to enhance the country's international status and strengthen national defense capacity. The possession of nuclear weapons, it may think, would improve its position in any confrontation, add weight to its words, and even create conditions for it to be allowed to take the lead in negotiations.
Such a rationale, though seemingly logical, is actually unrealistic and illusory, given the DPRK's internal and external environment, and the prevalent international situation and trend.
Development of nuclear weapons, in the short term, may enable the DPRK to boost morale at home and give it more bargaining chips when dealing with foreign countries. But, in the long run, it does not serve the country's fundamental national interests. It will not make the country more secure nor contribute to its long-term economic development. It will not help improve the country's position in any confrontation nor enhance its international status.
Although it has been a long time since the DPRK started research and development on nuclear weapons, the progress has been slow. The data available from its latest underground nuclear test on May 25 suggests that the technology applied is still preliminary. The DPRK still has a long way to go before it turns the lethal technology from test ground to the battlefield, or equips its missiles with nuclear warheads.
In view of this technology gap, the latest nuclear test carried far more political, than military, significance.
Nuclear weapons will by no means lend a sharper edge to the DPRK's military teeth. On the contrary, such weapons will place the country in a more perilous situation.
The reasons for this are:
First, the Korean Peninsula has always been trapped in a tense, Cold War-style military confrontation. Pyongyang's enhanced nuclear capability only adds more unpredictable elements which could invite possible pre-emptive attacks.
Second, possession of nuclear weapons also brings with it problems concerning nuclear security and management, making nuclear leakage possible as a result of human or technical errors.
Third, the DPRK has rather a small territory, with limited land depth in a military sense. Once attacked, it is quite likely to fall victim to surgical, accurate strikes by long-range missiles. Lack of second-strike capability makes the country's security even more uncertain despite possession of nuclear weapons.
From the economic point of view, the DPRK has a rather weak economy and scarce resources. Since the 1990s, the country has been hit by a succession of natural disasters, leading to a paucity of food and necessities. Therefore, the DPRK's top priority should be to lift the economy out of the doldrums and improve people's livelihood.
The development of nuclear weapons will inevitably take more financial and material resources away from the country's economic sector and hinder its recovery and development.
On the foreign front, 189 countries have so far signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Any move that goes against the world consensus on proliferation and toward developing nuclear weapons will definitely not win international understanding, sympathy and support.
It is impossible for the international community to accept the DPRK's nuclear test as legitimate and acknowledge the country's status as a nuclear-weapon state. Pyongyang will face more comprehensive and harsher sanctions, and it will be squeezed further on the international stage. This is certainly not what Pyongyang intended to see when it conducted the nuclear test.
The author is Deputy Secretary-General, China Committee for National Security Policy Studies
(China Daily June 3, 2009)
