By Yu Maofeng, Lu Jingli

Russia and the United States will start the first round of full-fledged talks on a new nuclear arms control treaty?in Moscow?on Tuesday as part of the broader efforts to improve relations.

The talks, which came after Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and his US counterpart Barack Obama agreed to work out a replacement for the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) at their first meeting in London early April, will serve not only as a touchstone of better ties, but also a start to break the deadlock over nuclear weapons reduction, media observers said.

Disputes over talks?

Russia and the United States have staged talks on nuclear arms control since the 1960s and have reached several agreements.

START I, signed in 1991 between the United States?and Russia?places a limit of 6,000 strategic or long-range nuclear warheads on each side and allows the inspection of weapons.

The subsequent 2002 treaty signed in Moscow called for reducing nuclear warheads to between 1,700 and 2,200 by the end of 2012, but made no provision for verification. If START I expires in December this year without a follow-up, the Moscow treaty would be left with no legally binding system for verification.

The Moscow treaty made no stipulation on reduced warheads. Russia destroyed the warheads due to the lack of funds and their aging, but the United States used intercontinental ballistic missiles to send satellites into space instead of destroying them.

The United States also divides nuclear warheads into two types, operationally deployed and stockpiled. Those in storage are considered to have been cut off.

Russia complained that the United States may put the stockpiled warheads into use in case of need. Therefore, the two sides have been at odds since the Moscow treaty took effect.

The United States is ready to work out a new deal on the basis of the Moscow treaty, which Russia says is connected with START I and will make no sense when START I expires.

Russia has so far put forward three proposals on the new agreement. First, stockpiled warheads should not be counted in the cuts. Second, the number of all existing kinds of delivery vehicles should be restricted. Third, the two sides should work out a monitoring mechanism for nuclear arms reduction.

Stumbing block

Despite optimism expressed by both sides, there is only a very slim chance that Moscow and Washington would be able to adopt a new agreement by the end of the year, because Russia intends to link the issue with the US missile defense plan, the Kommersant newspaper said.

"Russia will certainly link missile defense with all related issues, including strategic arms reduction," Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said during his recent visit to Japan.

The Bush administration planned to station elements of missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic to counter the threats from "rogue states" like Iran. Russia has long expressed strong opposition to the plan, saying it poses serious threats to Russia's national security.

Medvedev, in his first state-of-the-nation address last November, threatened to deploy Iskander missile system in its Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad in response to the US missile shield.

The United States, which repeatedly reiterated that the missile defense plan was not directed against Russia and said it felt disappointed at Russia's responsive measures, did not admit that Russia's concern over the missile shield is grounded until recently.

The move means that the United States will probably review its missile shield policy, analysts said. But it is still unknown that how the United States will adjust its policy and whether the new policy will make Russia satisfactory.

Political determination?

Russia and the United States share a number of common views on nuclear arms reduction, including their objections to nuclear proliferation and nuclear war, worries over terrorists' access to nuclear weapons, and willingness to cooperate on the Korean peninsula and Iran nuclear issues.

In a speech to nearly 30,000 people in Prague early April, Obama called for reducing the world's nuclear arsenal and finally eliminating all nuclear threat in the world.

The United States, the only nuclear power that has used nuclear weapons, has the "responsibility to act", and the US administration could lead in and "start" to reduce nuclear arms, Obama said.

Obama's commitment for "a world without nuclear weapons" signals Washington's possible adjustment of its nuclear strategy, or at least, a departure from the Bush administration.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov last week praised the new US government for taking a constructive stance in talks with Russia, hinting Moscow's readiness for compromise on a new nuclear arms control deal.

Russia will pursue a "rational and pragmatic" foreign policy, avoiding costly confrontation and a new arms race, said the country's new national security strategy through 2020 approved last week.

"Russia will make every effort to retain parity with the United States in the field of strategic offensive weapons in the most cost-effective way," the document said.

Both sides see a new treaty as a way to show that the former Cold War foes can work together in spite of bitter disputes on other issues.

It's the determination of the two countries' leaders that really matters, analysts said.

As long as they have the desire to strike a new deal and would like to make concessions on disputes, a new treaty is likely to come into being by the December deadline.

(Xinhua News Agency May 19, 2009)