Obstacles lying ahead

Although the US expert is quite optimistic in Obama's nuclear policy, Russian analysts noted that a number of stumbling blocks remain on concluding the new treaty.

"Among them, the major one is the coordination of principles on the accounting of warheads, because there has been a lot of disputes on this issue over the years," the Interfax news agency quoted Maj. Gen. Vladimir Dvorkin, a senior fellow with the International Security Center at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, as saying.

Indeed, earlier media reports estimated that the United States currently has at least 2,200 strategic nuclear warheads deployed and Russia between 2,000 and 3,000. But figures given out by Kimball citing independent experts showed that Russian arsenal of tactical nuclear warheads could be as high as 8,000.

Meanwhile, experts from Poland, the key location of US missile defense system, believed that the United States and Russia together hold nearly 25,000 nuclear warheads, or 96 percent of the global nuclear arsenal, according to the Moscow Times.

Another obstacle lies right in the US stance on its missile defense system.

While calling for a nuclear-free world, Obama also said in Prague that he would continue to pursue a missile defense system in Europe "that is cost-effective and proven" as long as the Iranian nuclear threat existed, Russian analysts pointed out.

"Obama's proposal of a nuclear-free world is not a propaganda move. The Americans have outlined a long-term policy that will benefit them. However, one cannot liquidate nuclear weapons without changing one's policy from positions of strength while at the same time developing an ABM system," the Vremya Novostei quoted Gen. Pavel Zolotarev, deputy director of the Moscow-based Institute of US and Canadian Studies, as saying.

"The Americans will not stop the deployment of a missile defense system in Europe," the daily Russian paper reported citing another expert Viktor Yesin, former chief of staff of Russia's Strategic Missile Force.

The only question is "whether Obama will limit it to 10 anti-missiles in Poland and one missile tracking radar in the Czech Republic or not," said Yesin.

Lastly but most importantly, some Russian analysts also noted that the Kremlin relies heavily on its nuclear arms for national security due to its "weak" conventional forces.

Russia's nuclear arsenal is the only military component that gives it hedge in dealing with the United States and other major powers, said Alexander Golts, deputy editor of the on-line newspaper Yezhednevny Zhurnal.

"This is precisely why Russia's military strategists see Obama's call for a decrease in nuclear weapons as another attempt to decrease Moscow's influence," he said in an article published on the Moscow Times.

(Xinhua News Agency April 14, 2009)