The blood is not yet dry in Gaza

Mr Ramadan said that complex negotiations on a number of interconnected issues, the reopening of the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt, the formation of a Palestinian national unity government including both Fatah and Hamas, and the lifting of the Israeli blockade, are holding up the reconstruction of Gaza following the recent Israeli assault on the territory that killed more than 1,400 Palestinians, mainly civilians.

"The blood is not yet dry in Gaza. Ten percent of the population is homeless. They are waiting for rebuilding to begin, but all the issues are connected and unfortunately it is the homeless people who are suffering."

Probability of a new war

Mr Ramadan expressed his view that a new war in the Middle East is likely within the next year or so pitting Israel against Iran and the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah, and may well draw in Syria.

"Israel will not accept that Hezbollah remains powerful in Lebanon, Hezbollah will not accept Israel keeping the Shiba farms [a tract of Lebanese territory still under Israeli occupation]. It won't take long for the issue to break again between Israel and Hezbollah. Hezbollah knows this and they are mobilizing themselves for a real battle with Israel. Israel knows this, Iran knows this and Syria knows this."

Israel believes Iran to be more dangerous than Hezbollah or Hamas, said Mr Ramadan. For the Israelis, it is unacceptable that Iran is growing economically and militarily. What action they take will depend on the progress of possible negotiations between the new Obama administration and Iran. If negotiations were to make progress it would be difficult for Israel to attack Iran. But Mr Ramadan said Israel would not wait a long time. "They will give the US a chance, say 6 months or so".

He said there had been a secular decline in Israeli military power in the region over the previous four decades. While the 1967 war demonstrated Israeli military superiority, the 1973 war had restored some kind of balance. In 2006 Hezbollah effectively won the war in Lebanon. "Israel is no longer the superpower in the area so if the Americans do not give them real support on the ground, they will not win a war that involves Syria and Iran."

Mr Ramadan ridiculed Israeli claims that the Gaza operation had restored the credibility of the Israeli Defense Force after the 2006 Lebanon debacle. "96 percent of casualties in Gaza were civilians – so if Israel wants to claim victory, it is a victory against whom? They did nothing to Hamas."

Former leaders

I asked Mr Ramadan about the role Tony Blair had played as Middle East peace envoy. He said he hoped that sometime in the future the former UK Prime Minister would write a book about his experiences in the Middle East. "I think he will tell the truth, and he will say the Israel does not want peace. Of course he can't say it now," he added, smiling.

On former US President Jimmy Carter, who has become a hate figure for the Israel lobby in the United States since he began campaigning for the establishment of a Palestinian state, Mr Ramadan made a wry observation that world leaders say one thing when they are in power and something completely different when they leave office. "Imagine if when Carter was President he had done for the Palestinians what he is doing now. He believes Palestinian's have the right to an independent state, and that Israel is acting against the international community. But when he was President he could not say it."

"That's the problem with the Palestinian cause. We have huge support, but from people who lack position or power."

"Unfortunately in this world it is the law of the jungle – its not right makes might, but might makes right. We have right on our side but they have the power so they make the rules."

(China.org.cn, April 8, 2009)