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DPRK's planned rocket launch puts US in dilemma
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If the DPRK has concrete proof that a civil satellite has been launched, using military forces to target it will hardly win support from the international community.

The DPRK has warned that any attempt to shoot down the rocket would be regarded as an act of war. Would the US risk a war?

Secondly, like its ally Japan, the US is not 100 percent sure of a successful interception.

Analysts said the US has the capability to intercept a missile headed for Alaska or Hawaii, but the systems are largely untested. "You don't know until you shoot if you are going to hit it or not," Ralph Cossa, president of the Hawaii-based think tank Pacific Forum CSIS, said.

Talks or sanctions

Recently, the Barack Obama administration has become less tough on the launch, urging to refrain from trying to intercept the rocket and revive the stalled missile talks with the DPRK.

"Over-reaction would be shooting down the missile, taking out the missile from the launch pad, suspending or terminating the six party talks," said Frank Jannuzi, staff member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations and key foreign policy adviser to the Obama administration.

"North Korea may be aiming to revive the negotiations stalled at the end of the Clinton administration," Jannuzi said.

On March 11, US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton talked about the "need to have a conversation about missiles" with the DPRK.

Clinton also said "a range of options" could be pursued against Pyongyang if it tests a long-range ballistic missile, including seeking action in the UN Security Council.

Japan has warned the DPRK of more sanctions if the country goes ahead with a rocket launch. Prime Minister Taro Aso has said he would bring the case to the United Nations Security Council.

On Tuesday, the European Union warned that the DPRK rocket launch "would be seen as a breach of UN Security Council Resolution 1718, and it would send a wrong signal to the international community."

On Tuesday, a DPRK Foreign Ministry spokesman blasted Washington and Tokyo's attempts to impose UN sanctions on his country's satellite launch.

These countries' attempts to submit the DPRK satellite issue to the UN was in violation of the spirit of "mutual respect and equality" stated in the 2005 six-party talks statement, he said.

(Xinhua News Agency March 25, 2009)

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