One year has passed since Lebanon's Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh was killed in a car bomb in Damascus. The Lebanese Shiite armed group had vowed to revenge against Israel, which was accused of carrying out the assassination, however, no action has been taken until now.
Local political analysts have been ruling out a respond by Hezbollah in the near future, due to local and regional reasons, military analyst Elias Hanna told the local Daily Star.
"The decision is not fully in the hands of Hezbollah, although Hezbollah is being pressured by its people to respond," Hanna said, adding that the potential resuming of the indirect Syria-Israeli talks, and the new improvement of relations between U.S. and Iran, leave Hezbollah hand cuffed.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah denied being commanded by Iran or Syria on this issue, and its chief Hasan Nasrallah renewed last month the promise to revenge Mughniyeh's death.
"Hezbollah will keep the card of Mughniyeh's revenge in its hand until the right time comes," Braham Makdad, a Hezbollah supporter, told Xinhua.
Makdad, who lives in the stronghold of Hezbollah in the southern suburbs, stressed that the people have not yet recovered from the 2006 war outcomes, and are not enthusiastic about a new war, but still, he added, Hezbollah cannot forget the revenge of Mughniyeh because "nothing would deter Israel from killing Hezbollah commanders and officials."
Israeli troops on Thursday were put on high alert on the northern borders for the anniversary of Mughniyeh, to thwart any attempt by Hezbollah to retaliate.
"Israelis are living in fear of our revenge. Don't expect me to say when we will strike," Nasrallah said, threatening to retaliate "in any place, at any time and in any way."
Nasrallah accused Israel of Mughniyeh's assassination, but the Jewish state denied the charge. However, the Israeli popular daily Yedioth Ahronoth reported last week that Israeli Mossad agents did kill Mughniyeh after the CIA shared information obtained from a Hezbollah operator captured in Iraq.
Hezbollah chief was known to keep his promises, local political analysts said, while Israeli officials have regularly promised a massive respond to any Hezbollah attack.
Nasrallah is scheduled to deliver a speech on the assassination anniversary occasion next Monday, and he has to explain the delay in the revenge he promised.
Whether Hezbollah is planning a revenge operation soon or is preparing for the right time is a question that cannot be answered by observers, but, Hezbollah should prepare answers for their supporters.
(Xinhua News Agency February 13, 2009)