Following Tuesday's parliamentary election which leaves two of its main contenders neck-to-neck, the prospect of an Israeli coalition government remains anything but clear, analysts said on Wednesday.
 |
|
Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni waves to supporters. Livni's Kadima party won a razor-thin victory in the Israeli election Wednesday, gaining one more seat than right-wing rival Likud, according to a final ballot count.[Xinhuanet.com] |
With nearly all ballots counted on Wednesday, Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's centrist Kadima party, which secured 28 mandates, held an extremely narrow lead over Benjamin Netanyahu's center-right Likud party, which gained 27 of the 120 seats of the Knesset (parliament).
Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel is our home), led by hardliner Avigdor Lieberman, came in third place with 15 mandates, pushing Defense Minister Ehud Barak's Labor, Israel's largest left-wing party, to the fourth place with 13 seats.
Fifth and sixth in line were Shas and United Torah Judaism, both religious parties and orthodox in their perspective on national issues.
Though Livni garnered the support of some 36,000 votes over Netanyahu, his chances of consolidating a right-wing coalition appear stronger than Livni's coalition building options. The right- wing bloc carried 65 seats compared to only 55 for the center-left bloc.
Both Livni and Netanyahu claimed a victory on Wednesday morning following the 18th parliamentary election, but it is now up to Israeli President Shimon Peres to task one of the candidates with forming a new government, a process analysts said could take up to two months.
Given Livni's poor coalition options, she indicated Kadima and Likud join forces and even suggested a rotating coalition power whereby both she and Netanyahu would enjoy a period of premiership.
However, Likud members have shot down the possibility of rotation.
"There won't be a rotation," senior Likud member Silvan Shalom told Army Radio on Wednesday, noting that the method is chosen when there is a 60-60 balance between the two blocs, but the victory for Likud is clear.
Barry Rubin, director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center of the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya, told Xinhua there are three basic options for a coalition.
"The first and simplest is a national unity government comprised of Likud, Kadima and Labor, giving them a coalition of more than 60 seats, a solid government," Rubin said.
As Labor sank to a new low in popularity, Barak told the party' s Knesset members that the party, which has ruled for the first half of Israel's 60-year history, was unlikely to be a member of any coalition to be formed, and would move over to the opposition camp.
Rubin said the second option was for Netanyahu to create his own center-right coalition for which he would require six different parties, adding that it might prove too complicated to get them all on the same page.
Netanyahu is in talks with Shas leader Eli Yishai, who expressed his willingness to consider a coalition with Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu and other right-leaning parties.
As a third option, Livni could also make a coalition with Lieberman and leave out Likud, Rubin said.
Though Lieberman has expressed his interest in joining a right- wing coalition, party officials noted Yisrael Beiteinu had not yet made a final decision regarding who it would support for prime minister.
"We prefer to form a national camp with Netanyahu, but we have not yet ruled out Livni," a senior party official said.
Rubin underscored that political rifts between parties would ultimately be less disabling to a coalition than they appear, saying that "there are no personal antagonisms, no great rivalries. These people could work together."
In the absence of international pressure for an Israeli- Palestinian peace agreement that would compromise Israel's defensible borders, other issues that separate them would be workable, he said.
Ghassan Khatib, vice president of Birzeit University based near Ramallah, told Xinhua that "the result of the election confirms the previous analysis that Israeli society is drifting to the right, which is similar to what we have seen in Palestinian society, which also shows a trend of radicalization of public opinion."
He did not believe Israel's inclination to the right would have any effect on the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations.
"I don't see a significant difference between Likud and Kadima, especially in terms of the intent that both of them have to continue expansion of the settlements," Khatib said.
Livni and Netanyahu take similar positions about the future relations between Israel and the Palestinians, he noted. "We will continue under this new Israeli government to live the situation of paralysis."
"As far as the political process is concerned, we have already had Livni as foreign minister, and a prime minister from her party, Ehud Olmert, so we know exactly what the limits of Kadima are," Khatib added.
(Xinhua News Agency February 12, 2009)