The fact that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad recently spoke more in terms of peace while Iran maintained its staunch anti- Israel stance may also indicate a change in the nature of the ideological battle.
Golan said that the lack of clarity concerning Hamas' willingness to accept a ceasefire give rise to many questions regarding the length of the ceasefire and the possible deployment of an international monitoring force. Perhaps even more crucial to any long-term truce is the question whether and how it might be possible to resolve the arms smuggling at the Egyptian border.
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A Palestinian child who was injured in an Israeli army strike is rushed to Kmal Idwan hospital in Jabaliya refugee camp, northern Gaza Strip Jan. 13, 2009.Xinhua]
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"In a recent interview a representative of the Egyptian government, who was clearly out to defend Egypt for not having protected that border and prevented the tunnels, made an important point. Merely destroying the tunnels was not enough to deter Hamas. Once you destroy them they simply start rebuilding them again," Golan said.
She added that the establishment of a ceasefire, though necessary, does not provide a long-term solution.
"Perhaps we can get a ceasefire for about a year and possibly deter the smuggling, which would help, but it would only be temporary," she said. "As long as Hamas stays in power, it won't really make much of a difference in the long run."
As to how a victory could be defined, she noted that Hamas would probably call its survival through the Israeli incursion a victory.
"Hamas can call it a victory as long as they stay in power. And it certainly seems they are staying in power for now," Golan said. "It would be even more of a victory if they come to some sort of reconciliation with Fatah in the West Bank and somehow manage to stick around in Gaza," she added.
"Israel could claim a victory, temporarily, by establishing a ceasefire, but ultimately there is no military solution," Golan said.
"There has to be some way of dealing with it politically," she added, noting that the Israeli government has said all along that it could not entirely eradicate the extremist ideology that belies Hamas.
She noted that the only way out was through a political agreement with the more pragmatic Fatah, though negotiations with its leader, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, have so far been unsuccessful.
"This was basically Israel's strategy. To strengthen Abbas so Hamas would eventually wither away, but we didn't manage to do that," Golan said.
(Xinhua News Agency January 15, 2009)