This time, Israel seems to have prepared better to ward off the military and political catastrophe of its incursion in Lebanon in 2006. By all appearances its forces were following a methodical campaign of strikes, even as it tried to win the propaganda war.

But Israel's attacks also could backfire, and history suggests that as the more likely scenario.

The supposed primary objective of the operation – to stop Hamas launching rockets on Israeli towns – is far from being achieved. The rocket attacks against Israel – as many as 60 a day – continue.

The images of carnage could only fuel new hatreds and radicalize some who felt that peace talks offer more hope than resistance.

Worse, despite targeting the Hamas security infrastructure, Israel's assault has taken a huge toll on civilians.

Unlike in other wars, where populations run out of the conflict zone and refugee crises develop, Gazans have nowhere to go.

Long before Israel's latest offensive, the strip had been locked up from all sides, with no access to the outside world.

Palestinians in Gaza ventured outside to shop for food during a three-hour lull in fighting on Wednesday. Israel said it would now implement it daily to facilitate a flow of aid to the territory.

"Food and milk – what else can we hope for in three hours," said Ahmed Abu Kamel, a father of six.

"Hamas as an institution is not really sustaining casualties," said Hua Liming. "The people of Gaza are the ones who are paying the price."

The further and longer the Israeli incursion, the more the casualties mount. The destruction will highlight divisions and fuel instability in the region.

Israel has made it clear that it is in no rush for a diplomatic solution, but history of its conflict with Hamas suggests that there will have to be one.

Analysts expect that some sort of negotiated ceasefire with Hamas is inevitable, since Israel seems neither willing nor able to reoccupy Gaza and replace its leadership.

"There are two ways to deal with Hamas," said Yin Gang. "Either confront them, which makes them more extreme, or accept them in the political process."

The Jewish state reportedly agreed with the "principles" of a US-brokered Egyptian deal and would send an envoy to Cairo to discuss details of how it might be put into practice.

Israelis might prefer to forget the history. But what was true then is true today: it would be unrealistic to think there is a Gaza, or a Hamas, solution without a coherent and real Palestinian peace strategy.

Due to their historical and present grudges and grievances, neither the Israelis nor the Palestinians can resolve the problem on their own.

The crisis in the region is a challenge for the international community, Israel's allies in particular.

The latest crisis came on the eve of the handover of the US presidency.

Analysts say Israel may face a deadline to wrap up its campaign by the time Obama is sworn in on Jan 20, or risk a strain in ties with Washington at the beginning of the new administration.

If so, Obama, who has raised expectations of a change in policy in the Middle East, will be able to capitalize on the cease-fire to move quickly to revive Israeli-Palestinian peace talks and renew a push for a permanent settlement in a way that increases the chances for negotiating a broad regional peace.

The mediation can work only when it takes into account the demands and principles of both Israelis and Palestinians.

That means ensuring the rocket fire from Hamas is halted permanently and that it can no longer restock its arsenal with more weapons via hundreds of tunnels dug under the Egypt-Gaza border. Meanwhile, the political settlement should include lifting of Israel's embargo between Israel and Gaza, and most importantly, giving hope to Palestinians that they will achieve the statehood they crave.

Feuds are easy to start and hard to end.

The Middle East conflict has taken far too great a toll already.

There is no time to lose. Violence is a dangerous fuse that could set off a new round of hate and distrust.

The tit-for-tat strategy has never found them peace.

(China Daily January 9, 2009)