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How far to Gaza ceasefire?
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As Olmert told the local Ha'aretz daily Tuesday, he was in contact with numerous world leaders in working toward a diplomatic solution to the crisis and "the result (of the diplomatic maneuvers) must be an effective blockading of the Philadelphi Route, with supervision and follow-ups."

The Philadelphi Route is an area between Gaza and Egypt where militants have been digging tunnels for smuggling weapons and guerillas.

On Monday, a Hamas delegation led by the movement's senior member Emad al-Alami held talks with Egyptian officials for the first time since the Israeli offensive in Gaza.

Stating the group's position, Alami said Hamas seeks an end to the Israeli aggression, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, opening the crossing points, especially Rafah, with a total lifting of the blockade, according to the Egyptian Gazette newspaper.

According to analysts, given the precedence of the Egypt-proposed six-month ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which expired on Dec.19, it is not impossible that Hamas would comply with the condition of ending rocket attacks into Israel.

It is the issue of lifting the blockade that is pivotal. In exchange for stopping rocket fire, Hamas would demand Israel and Egypt reopen border crossings that would allow a resumption of economic life in Gaza.

But Israel has imposed the clampdown in the first place to undermine and smother Hamas, and Israel is not the only party worried about the side effects of lifting the blockade.

Situation could get worse before getting better

Since neither side is likely to have all its demands met, the two sides would have to gather as much bargaining weight as possible before settling on the amount of compromise each makes.

On Tuesday, the U.S. State Department said Washington wants "an immediate ceasefire that is durable, sustainable and not time-limited," while the Arab states are emphasizing an immediate cessation of hostilities.

Israeli troops continued the ground incursion Tuesday. About 40 Palestinian civilians were killed when Israel Defense Forces (IDF) mortar shells hit a U.N. school in Gaza Tuesday, and senior officers admit that the IDF has been using enormous firepower, according to Ha'aretz.

While speculation circulated that Israel's ideal goal would be to root out Hamas, many analysts say the realistic one, in light of Hamas' some 20,000 members and wide popularity among Gazans, is to reach a lasting ceasefire on more favorable conditions and at the same time weaken Hamas as far as possible.

Israeli officials have reportedly said current diplomatic efforts are directed toward buying a few more days for the IDF to further advance its mission, which mirrors speculations that Israel is trying to give Hamas the hardest possible punch before it bows to international pressure to sign a ceasefire agreement.

(Xinhua News Agency January 8, 2009)

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